{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d01273a0-abee-4823-91d5-46e4afb4e7d1", "symbol": "7731", "name": "MARX Biotech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.291, "architecture_energy": 60.902, "architecture_maturity": 17.724, "architecture_confidence": 93.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.51, "rotation_up": 13.5, "upward_expansion": 13.24, "deceleration": 38.58, "rotation_down": 69.01, "downward_expansion": 91.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.69, 4.891091, 5.264143, 5.44271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.67, "trend_reference": 5.637, "distance_from_trend": -0.171545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.946077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.688483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243112, "excess_performance": -0.684484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.068241, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.116551, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.313433, "worst_return": -0.177291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.075697, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075697, "worst_return": -0.075697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.181275, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.308953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181275, "worst_return": 0.181275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.2, "volume": 4368071, "typical_volume": 15619145.45, "trend": 5.609667, "fair_value": 7.03472, "relative_strength": -30.952797, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.506552, "energy": 30.760137, "activity_lines": [ 5.360667, 5.521818, 5.714381, 5.729699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.87, "volume": 8738485, "typical_volume": 15309514.1, "trend": 5.615333, "fair_value": 7.01754, "relative_strength": -30.45631, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.683523, "energy": 41.704615, "activity_lines": [ 5.174667, 5.380364, 5.629476, 5.681978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 4024893, "typical_volume": 14790008.8, "trend": 5.627667, "fair_value": 7.001102, "relative_strength": -30.312841, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.000782, "energy": 49.009482, "activity_lines": [ 5.055333, 5.272909, 5.555333, 5.637763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.45, "volume": 7035003, "typical_volume": 14668495.75, "trend": 5.625, "fair_value": 6.981172, "relative_strength": -35.422203, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.201356, "energy": 67.986046, "activity_lines": [ 4.818667, 5.092364, 5.439238, 5.561785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.73, "volume": 3675911, "typical_volume": 14219377.35, "trend": 5.620667, "fair_value": 6.963721, "relative_strength": -32.267512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.443353, "energy": 63.88642, "activity_lines": [ 4.745333, 4.987636, 5.353571, 5.504043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.67, "volume": 5382072, "typical_volume": 13380043.6, "trend": 5.637, "fair_value": 6.946077, "relative_strength": -34.688483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.291418, "energy": 60.902298, "activity_lines": [ 4.69, 4.891091, 5.264143, 5.44271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }