{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d015d13d-1495-4074-8cac-6db624bdc27c", "symbol": "601921", "name": "Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.021, "architecture_energy": 23.649, "architecture_maturity": 89.331, "architecture_confidence": 77.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 33.13, "downward_expansion": 60.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.124, 7.079099, 7.179676, 7.346941 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.15, "trend_reference": 7.588352, "distance_from_trend": -0.057766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.651609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.100689, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138554, "excess_performance": -0.09535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065556, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747258, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34702375, "relative_activity": 1.002013, "balance": 0.747258, "dry_up": 0.943891, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047978, "annualized_volatility": 0.200515, "from_high_reference": -0.227711, "from_low_reference": 0.053019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.588352, "fair_value_reference": 7.651609, "structural_low": 6.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020436, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.02025, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.156446, "worst_return": -0.103785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028133, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.023753, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.132199, "worst_return": -0.136816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.078553, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03979, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.134958, "worst_return": -0.112532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 35091783.35, "trend": 7.631352, "fair_value": 7.656371, "relative_strength": -8.972024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.749473, "energy": 50.282091, "activity_lines": [ 6.947333, 7.025898, 7.206443, 7.396105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.33, "volume": 30418676, "typical_volume": 34872037.15, "trend": 7.610685, "fair_value": 7.653607, "relative_strength": -3.570705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.779208, "energy": 32.153107, "activity_lines": [ 7.083333, 7.07075, 7.200298, 7.376663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.15, "volume": 34702375, "typical_volume": 34632675.5, "trend": 7.588352, "fair_value": 7.651609, "relative_strength": -8.100689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.02132, "energy": 23.649008, "activity_lines": [ 7.124, 7.079099, 7.179676, 7.346941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }