{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d017ca05-7ff5-4565-aa37-08ecba2855ce",
    "symbol": "UAUG",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - August",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "model_version": "ta-0.1.0",
    "as_of_week": "2026-07-31",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "history_weeks": 344,
    "chart_window_weeks": 156,
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "stage_color": "green",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "stage_age_weeks": 2,
    "hard_stage_exit": false,
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "transition_score": 31.163,
    "is_transition_watch": false,
    "confidence": 54.248,
    "composite_score": 76.457,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_color": "green",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.686,
    "architecture_energy": 94.892,
    "architecture_maturity": 48.571,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.747,
    "architecture_age_weeks": 14,
    "is_reacceleration_watch": false,
    "architecture": {
      "regime": "upward_expansion",
      "label": "Upward Expansion",
      "color": "green",
      "modifier": "Established expansion",
      "gate": "up",
      "direction": 86.686,
      "energy": 94.892,
      "maturity": 48.571,
      "confidence": 83.747,
      "confirmation": 52.238,
      "age_weeks": 14,
      "candidate": null,
      "candidate_weeks": 0,
      "hard_reversal": false,
      "reacceleration_watch": false,
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.0,
        "rotation_up": 67.99,
        "upward_expansion": 99.98,
        "deceleration": 39.0,
        "rotation_down": 28.48,
        "downward_expansion": 21.98
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      "activity_lines": {
        "5": 42.296213,
        "10": 42.157402,
        "20": 41.826677,
        "30": 41.397217
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      "activity_slopes": {
        "5": 1.703456,
        "10": 1.53243,
        "20": 2.398156,
        "30": 2.009017
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      "bullish_order": 1.0,
      "bearish_order": 0.0,
      "fan_width_atr": 4.47159,
      "fan_width_change_4": 1.615201,
      "fan_width_percentile": 1.0,
      "fast_slow_gap_atr": 3.058304,
      "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -0.585643,
      "price_acceptance": 1.0,
      "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.764932,
      "accepted_above": 1.0,
      "accepted_below": 0.0,
      "crossing_density": 0.0
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    "interpretation": {
      "headline": "The primary weekly trend is advancing.",
      "body": "Price, trend slope and relative performance are being tested together. A Stage 2 label describes an established evidence state; it is not a buy instruction and late-stage extension still matters.",
      "phase": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
      "transition": "Stage 2 trend intact",
      "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 31/100."
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    "latest_close": 42.45,
    "sma_30": 40.914583,
    "distance_from_sma_30": 0.037527,
    "sma_30_slope": 0.019885,
    "fair_value": 35.662824,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190315,
    "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.005071,
    "is_fair_value_repair": false,
    "mansfield_rs": -3.018504,
    "mansfield_rs_change_13": 1.061981,
    "range_position_52": 1.0,
    "returns": {
      "13": 0.028341,
      "26": 0.055445,
      "52": 0.116723
    },
    "relative_returns": {
      "26": -0.029876,
      "52": -0.098111
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    "stage_scores": {
      "1": 26.3,
      "2": 78.47,
      "3": 74.79,
      "4": 21.53
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    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs 30-week average",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037527,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "30-week slope",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019885,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.190315,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "13-week Fair Value gap",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005071,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030185,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "13-week RS change",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01062,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "26-week price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055445,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "13-week volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 6.399063,
        "read": "Demand-led"
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    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 256374,
      "ratio_20": 5.136911,
      "up_down_ratio_13": 6.399063,
      "dry_up_ratio": 1.762786,
      "accumulation_weeks": 1,
      "distribution_weeks": 0
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    "base": {
      "high_26": 42.3,
      "low_26": 38.695,
      "depth": 0.085225,
      "compression": 0.239707,
      "breakout_distance": 0.003546
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    "risk": {
      "atr_percent": 0.004736,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.054632,
      "drawdown_from_52_high": 0.0,
      "advance_from_52_low": 0.11417
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    "levels": {
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      "trend_reference": 40.914583,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.662824,
      "support_reference": 40.914583,
      "range_low": 38.695,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of the 30-week average, followed by a flattening trend and weakening RS, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
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        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 82.068305,
        "architecture_energy": 92.10218,
        "activity_5": 42.058087,
        "activity_10": 41.935624,
        "activity_20": 41.472853,
        "activity_30": 41.09726
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-17",
        "open": 42.24,
        "high": 42.2644,
        "low": 42.18,
        "close": 42.21,
        "volume": 31896,
        "sma_30": 40.759793,
        "fair_value_history": 35.498197,
        "mansfield_rs": -3.346179,
        "stage": 3,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 78.48663,
        "architecture_energy": 91.726916,
        "activity_5": 42.129747,
        "activity_10": 42.005027,
        "activity_20": 41.591692,
        "activity_30": 41.19594
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-24",
        "open": 42.24,
        "high": 42.3,
        "low": 42.22,
        "close": 42.2618,
        "volume": 44452,
        "sma_30": 40.832213,
        "fair_value_history": 35.579106,
        "mansfield_rs": -2.549766,
        "stage": 2,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 77.854623,
        "architecture_energy": 91.672418,
        "activity_5": 42.19134,
        "activity_10": 42.070485,
        "activity_20": 41.705989,
        "activity_30": 41.292844
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-31",
        "open": 42.32,
        "high": 42.45,
        "low": 42.28,
        "close": 42.45,
        "volume": 256374,
        "sma_30": 40.914583,
        "fair_value_history": 35.662824,
        "mansfield_rs": -3.018504,
        "stage": 2,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 86.686212,
        "architecture_energy": 94.892109,
        "activity_5": 42.296213,
        "activity_10": 42.157402,
        "activity_20": 41.826677,
        "activity_30": 41.397217
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV",
      "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier",
      "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor",
      "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one",
      "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.",
      "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.",
      "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.",
      "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability"
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.010356,
        "positive_rate": 0.774194,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.774194,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006373,
        "stage_survival": 0.935484,
        "best_return": 0.042984,
        "worst_return": -0.039554,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.033802,
        "positive_rate": 0.909091,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.909091,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015692,
        "stage_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.077171,
        "worst_return": -0.015593,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.062652,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.030384,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.064856,
        "stage_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.213353,
        "worst_return": 0.070237,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "stage_ledger": [
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2021-07-09",
        "end": "2022-05-06",
        "weeks": 44,
        "return": -0.025962
      },
      {
        "stage": 4,
        "name": "Declining",
        "start": "2022-05-13",
        "end": "2022-06-10",
        "weeks": 5,
        "return": -0.013924
      },
      {
        "stage": 1,
        "name": "Basing",
        "start": "2022-06-17",
        "end": "2022-06-24",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.005964
      },
      {
        "stage": 4,
        "name": "Declining",
        "start": "2022-07-01",
        "end": "2023-01-13",
        "weeks": 29,
        "return": -0.012239
      },
      {
        "stage": 1,
        "name": "Basing",
        "start": "2023-01-20",
        "end": "2023-04-07",
        "weeks": 12,
        "return": 0.018799
      },
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2023-04-14",
        "end": "2023-05-19",
        "weeks": 6,
        "return": 0.005784
      },
      {
        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
        "start": "2023-05-26",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "weeks": 93,
        "return": 0.311176
      },
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "weeks": 20,
        "return": 0.07398
      },
      {
        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "weeks": 27,
        "return": 0.052965
      },
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "weeks": 25,
        "return": 0.049478
      },
      {
        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.004453,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "architecture_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": 0.007813,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004675,
        "regime_survival": 0.840909,
        "best_return": 0.046277,
        "worst_return": -0.039554,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.029523,
        "positive_rate": 0.9375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.9375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013807,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.074791,
        "worst_return": -0.007874,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.059172,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029969,
        "regime_survival": 0.875,
        "best_return": 0.100687,
        "worst_return": -0.075027,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.120601,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.058946,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.209455,
        "worst_return": -0.055841,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "architecture_ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "weeks": 9,
        "return": 0.037519,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "weeks": 22,
        "return": 0.078464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.012171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "weeks": 35,
        "return": 0.067287,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.00794,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "weeks": 8,
        "return": -0.034785,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "weeks": 3,
        "return": -0.019722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "weeks": 5,
        "return": 0.083326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.014386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "weeks": 5,
        "return": 0.031886,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "weeks": 38,
        "return": 0.028471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.020514,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.001465,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 14,
        "return": 0.028341,
        "active": true
      }
    ]
  }
}