{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d018fba6-8b94-4ca0-9e03-01e7d2f084e6", "symbol": "SP500S", "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.956, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.589, "architecture_energy": 53.837, "architecture_maturity": 60.189, "architecture_confidence": 62.487, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.38, "rotation_up": 50.12, "upward_expansion": 78.63, "deceleration": 69.4, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 7.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.663733, 6.636982, 6.592114, 6.481669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.836, "trend_reference": 6.363467, "distance_from_trend": 0.074257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.428984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.255639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10187, "excess_performance": 0.018986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449995, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069044, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.488687, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 579826, "relative_activity": 0.509115, "balance": 1.488687, "dry_up": 0.382576, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019028, "annualized_volatility": 0.132408, "from_high_reference": -0.004514, "from_low_reference": 0.201406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.363467, "fair_value_reference": 12.428984, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.013663, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000523, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.0587, "worst_return": -0.790599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015882, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.012271, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.793472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051931, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.029647, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.140897, "worst_return": -0.787784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05092, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167115, "worst_return": -0.79434, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032963, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.000561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.060466, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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6.497071, 6.401594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.599, "volume": 372064, "typical_volume": 1810807.0, "trend": 6.3228, "fair_value": 12.727753, "relative_strength": -3.687871, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.098056, "energy": 46.731284, "activity_lines": [ 6.617867, 6.620418, 6.520557, 6.420333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.563, "volume": 369205, "typical_volume": 1800451.75, "trend": 6.333967, "fair_value": 12.626234, "relative_strength": -3.986157, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.261591, "energy": 43.766634, "activity_lines": [ 6.601667, 6.608927, 6.53861, 6.43583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.553, "volume": 421752, "typical_volume": 1786278.45, "trend": 6.344533, "fair_value": 12.525356, "relative_strength": -4.114496, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.461758, "energy": 35.29356, "activity_lines": [ 6.586533, 6.596345, 6.553276, 6.449961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.836, "volume": 579826, "typical_volume": 1138889.6, "trend": 6.363467, "fair_value": 12.428984, "relative_strength": -1.255639, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.589312, "energy": 53.836616, "activity_lines": [ 6.663733, 6.636982, 6.592114, 6.481669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }