{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d01ed74a-a16d-4dee-b887-64adec657d68", "symbol": "TL", "name": "Techlead Next Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.927, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.372, "architecture_energy": 18.434, "architecture_maturity": 56.158, "architecture_confidence": 43.994, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.4, "rotation_up": 36.17, "upward_expansion": 65.17, "deceleration": 65.77, "rotation_down": 20.88, "downward_expansion": 5.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.401333, 0.400545, 0.395286, 0.39314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.4, "trend_reference": 0.387667, "distance_from_trend": 0.031814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.342885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.527545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.081214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105227, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.664037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3276400, "relative_activity": 0.266404, "balance": 2.664037, "dry_up": 0.450094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111538, "annualized_volatility": 0.401744, "from_high_reference": -0.354839, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.387667, "fair_value_reference": 0.342885, "structural_low": 0.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043222, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.05, "worst_return": -0.250503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.175526, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.231648, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.055556, "worst_return": -0.291684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.367188, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.425463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.166667, "worst_return": -0.580645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.495336, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.580645, "worst_return": -0.530535, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.361111, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4, "volume": 14267000, "typical_volume": 13612410.0, "trend": 0.376667, "fair_value": 0.34141, "relative_strength": -16.608858, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.845014, "energy": 28.022212, "activity_lines": [ 0.403333, 0.399091, 0.392619, 0.389441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 3036200, "typical_volume": 12766245.0, "trend": 0.381, "fair_value": 0.341859, "relative_strength": -16.285734, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.183519, "energy": 35.476562, "activity_lines": [ 0.404667, 0.399818, 0.393524, 0.390946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 1562500, "typical_volume": 12464675.0, "trend": 0.385, "fair_value": 0.342308, "relative_strength": -14.691326, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.57607, "energy": 26.182312, "activity_lines": [ 0.404, 0.400364, 0.394429, 0.392172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 3276400, "typical_volume": 12298605.0, "trend": 0.387667, "fair_value": 0.342885, "relative_strength": -13.527545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.372174, "energy": 18.434062, "activity_lines": [ 0.401333, 0.400545, 0.395286, 0.39314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }