{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d021d331-f02c-4d59-b270-24d19f396c4d", "symbol": "AXS", "name": "AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.456, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.584, "architecture_energy": 29.368, "architecture_maturity": 36.413, "architecture_confidence": 47.134, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.86, "rotation_up": 46.79, "upward_expansion": 66.73, "deceleration": 62.3, "rotation_down": 23.18, "downward_expansion": 16.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.723333, 109.067275, 105.569337, 104.196503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 103.49, "trend_reference": 102.975592, "distance_from_trend": 0.004995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.04667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.618336, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024322, "excess_performance": -0.149946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029227, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.993309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3097262, "relative_activity": 0.977179, "balance": 0.993309, "dry_up": 1.230342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065868, "annualized_volatility": 0.254608, "from_high_reference": -0.137511, "from_low_reference": 0.185036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.975592, "fair_value_reference": 83.04667, "structural_low": 93.601672, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.018546, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": 0.015529, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.193437, "worst_return": -0.176358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043435, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.016749, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.162636, "worst_return": -0.066793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091999, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00399, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.268375, "worst_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 106.806675, 103.180579, 101.550684, 101.588962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 113.06, "volume": 3655847, "typical_volume": 2953424.85, "trend": 102.333142, "fair_value": 81.559204, "relative_strength": 1.980792, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.145175, "energy": 73.363028, "activity_lines": [ 109.716813, 105.316666, 102.676558, 102.301611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.78, "volume": 3922253, "typical_volume": 2986773.05, "trend": 102.591344, "fair_value": 81.964853, "relative_strength": 5.156402, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.351671, "energy": 86.40462, "activity_lines": [ 112.223417, 107.522964, 103.925748, 103.104635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.5, "volume": 2282635, "typical_volume": 2942961.0, "trend": 102.872174, "fair_value": 82.380322, "relative_strength": 7.281223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.808712, "energy": 87.750145, "activity_lines": [ 114.386438, 109.7548, 105.29343, 104.001967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.32, "volume": 6296600, "typical_volume": 3140322.1, "trend": 102.922521, "fair_value": 82.720688, "relative_strength": -3.954752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.421711, "energy": 55.950609, "activity_lines": [ 111.761333, 109.630016, 105.530088, 104.159891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.49, "volume": 3097262, "typical_volume": 3169596.1, "trend": 102.975592, "fair_value": 83.04667, "relative_strength": -8.618336, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.584387, "energy": 29.368179, "activity_lines": [ 108.723333, 109.067275, 105.569337, 104.196503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }