{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0287be1-148f-4997-b9ec-9ab2d783c2a0", "symbol": "ALMEX", "name": "Mexedia Societ\u00e0 Per Azioni S.B.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.81, "architecture_energy": 61.881, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.614, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.47, "rotation_up": 25.07, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 58.46, "downward_expansion": 83.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.98, 4.257455, 5.254286, 6.24914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.535, "trend_reference": 7.9015, "distance_from_trend": -0.552617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.633237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.740707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.905821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.705417, "excess_performance": -0.758728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.552617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.740707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.819058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125887, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.705417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 511343, "relative_activity": 2.428466, "balance": 1.557479, "dry_up": 2.411338, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.340007, "annualized_volatility": 0.925549, "from_high_reference": -0.960056, "from_low_reference": 0.242531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.9015, "fair_value_reference": 13.633237, "structural_low": 2.845, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.073673, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.085656, "regime_survival": 0.941176, "best_return": 4.04, "worst_return": -0.611429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.206704, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.293033, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 3.230769, "worst_return": -0.653333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.520937, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.55959, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 33.117649, "worst_return": -0.767521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.553459, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.654017, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 4.992647, "worst_return": -0.904225, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.760714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.355556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.439024, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.390071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.603448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090323, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.751056, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.0, "volume": 557, "typical_volume": 6508.85, "trend": 32.42, "fair_value": 43.504242, "relative_strength": -33.842914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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95.544014, "activity_lines": [ 4.498333, 5.362182, 6.315571, 7.483054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.0, "volume": 158655, "typical_volume": 152203.85, "trend": 8.856167, "fair_value": 14.027083, "relative_strength": -85.680419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.590301, "energy": 95.658181, "activity_lines": [ 3.824, 4.839727, 5.913262, 7.078355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.505, "volume": 504481, "typical_volume": 164197.15, "trend": 8.536333, "fair_value": 13.905962, "relative_strength": -78.138809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.04974, "energy": 78.932577, "activity_lines": [ 3.884667, 4.649636, 5.694286, 6.797634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.72, "volume": 856467, "typical_volume": 194355.05, "trend": 8.220333, "fair_value": 13.773397, "relative_strength": -76.577266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.029197, "energy": 62.864131, "activity_lines": [ 4.122667, 4.542182, 5.520524, 6.551419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.535, "volume": 511343, "typical_volume": 210562.15, "trend": 7.9015, "fair_value": 13.633237, "relative_strength": -81.905821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.810484, "energy": 61.880517, "activity_lines": [ 3.98, 4.257455, 5.254286, 6.24914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }