{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d028bc27-cd27-4750-add2-8c1cd03d0bd2", "symbol": "600446", "name": "Shenzhen Kingdom Sci-Tech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.448, "architecture_energy": 41.92, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.211, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.06, "rotation_up": 25.14, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 47.75, "downward_expansion": 69.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 10.587273, 11.384667, 12.031355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.13, "trend_reference": 13.079333, "distance_from_trend": -0.149039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.08943, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.202709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284704, "excess_performance": -0.241501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284704, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166096188, "relative_activity": 1.888662, "balance": 0.751323, "dry_up": 1.330612, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101458, "annualized_volatility": 0.340151, "from_high_reference": -0.52839, "from_low_reference": 0.147423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.079333, "fair_value_reference": 14.08943, "structural_low": 9.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00432, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.014994, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.419322, "worst_return": -0.161187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.087719, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.012602, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.827586, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078776, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.095081, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.585596, "worst_return": -0.286632, 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"fair_value": 14.129359, "relative_strength": -32.888885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.33635, "energy": 87.199257, "activity_lines": [ 10.212667, 10.900727, 11.829619, 12.557505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.85, "volume": 93894185, "typical_volume": 79966628.75, "trend": 13.394667, "fair_value": 14.107904, "relative_strength": -33.266831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.139586, "energy": 82.913286, "activity_lines": [ 10.037333, 10.592182, 11.58219, 12.316753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.08, "volume": 115017800, "typical_volume": 82834503.65, "trend": 13.239, "fair_value": 14.097519, "relative_strength": -24.407347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.803758, "energy": 57.003011, "activity_lines": [ 10.355333, 10.561636, 11.474048, 12.167419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.13, "volume": 166096188, "typical_volume": 87943845.95, "trend": 13.079333, "fair_value": 14.08943, "relative_strength": -25.202709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.448008, "energy": 41.920008, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 10.587273, 11.384667, 12.031355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }