{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0295e11-8625-415e-a887-9e39aa7b528d", "symbol": "688679", "name": "Anhui Tongyuan Environment Energy Saving Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.341, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.904, "architecture_energy": 59.102, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.574, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.35, "rotation_up": 11.31, "upward_expansion": 10.67, "deceleration": 44.93, "rotation_down": 66.55, "downward_expansion": 81.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.306667, 36.736909, 44.380619, 46.310881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.279999, "trend_reference": 47.366666, "distance_from_trend": -0.255172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.431583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.291839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341668, "excess_performance": -0.298464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.255172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815601, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.512414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.832183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341668, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087748, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18512334, "relative_activity": 1.133436, "balance": 1.087748, "dry_up": 1.41185, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232143, "annualized_volatility": 0.829708, "from_high_reference": -0.532715, "from_low_reference": 1.35514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.366666, "fair_value_reference": 19.431583, "structural_low": 25.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01547, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.000684, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.282118, "worst_return": -0.42165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09337, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.121321, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.563414, "worst_return": -0.306998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021376, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.06928, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157455, "worst_return": -0.371703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 18.939068, "relative_strength": -5.730538, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.4143, "energy": 66.011537, "activity_lines": [ 39.971999, 47.013091, 50.551333, 49.706838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.879999, "volume": 17176290, "typical_volume": 14797352.25, "trend": 46.319333, "fair_value": 19.019163, "relative_strength": -19.585322, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -60.125247, "energy": 80.089812, "activity_lines": [ 34.607333, 42.43109, 48.273857, 48.451806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.529999, "volume": 30638927, "typical_volume": 15554617.35, "trend": 46.747666, "fair_value": 19.156099, "relative_strength": 3.76188, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.274986, "energy": 70.460866, "activity_lines": [ 33.723332, 39.949636, 46.927999, 47.75572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.150002, "volume": 25911031, "typical_volume": 16211559.9, "trend": 47.077333, "fair_value": 19.295744, "relative_strength": 3.962589, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.397907, "energy": 75.406285, "activity_lines": [ 33.981333, 38.123091, 45.679666, 47.072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.279999, "volume": 18512334, "typical_volume": 16332927.65, "trend": 47.366666, "fair_value": 19.431583, "relative_strength": -2.291839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.903772, "energy": 59.102106, "activity_lines": [ 34.306667, 36.736909, 44.380619, 46.310881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }