{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d029bfd9-c487-4899-8896-2e06e2d92c25", "symbol": "307520", "name": "Mirae Asset Management - Tiger Holding Company", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.327, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.108, "architecture_energy": 39.711, "architecture_maturity": 4.074, "architecture_confidence": 69.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.53, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 52.78, "rotation_down": 61.3, "downward_expansion": 49.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 20798.389323, 21516.842152, 22740.49255, 22509.373269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21285.0, "trend_reference": 21851.384505, "distance_from_trend": -0.02592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12966.609535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.275925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154952, "excess_performance": -0.074877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106504, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.645226, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.689757, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2930126, "relative_activity": 0.922108, "balance": 0.689757, "dry_up": 1.70619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117895, "annualized_volatility": 0.433735, "from_high_reference": -0.224308, "from_low_reference": 0.698701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21851.384505, "fair_value_reference": 12966.609535, "structural_low": 17204.137428, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 5.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034751, "worst_return": -0.058511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070021, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052473, "worst_return": -0.12234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.053423, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.010514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00108, "worst_return": -0.162848, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.496176, "energy": 30.251023, "activity_lines": [ 21302.63789, 22412.287606, 23161.494159, 22634.555712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20000.0, "volume": 6860223, "typical_volume": 3237377.35, "trend": 21683.087207, "fair_value": 12885.469943, "relative_strength": -16.835368, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.424868, "energy": 37.851925, "activity_lines": [ 20756.48789, 21792.610334, 22891.333212, 22535.056315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21285.0, "volume": 2930126, "typical_volume": 3177638.2, "trend": 21851.384505, "fair_value": 12966.609535, "relative_strength": -6.275925, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.108362, "energy": 39.711329, "activity_lines": [ 20798.389323, 21516.842152, 22740.49255, 22509.373269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }