{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d02fe49d-7bf6-410b-980d-639928e4b5f6", "symbol": "EFZ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT MSCI EAFE (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.695, "architecture_energy": 60.786, "architecture_maturity": 33.275, "architecture_confidence": 90.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.78, "rotation_up": 18.74, "upward_expansion": 10.93, "deceleration": 41.77, "rotation_down": 61.55, "downward_expansion": 84.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.63808, 22.819185, 23.069041, 23.345801 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.0532, "trend_reference": 23.609881, "distance_from_trend": -0.065933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.249676, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.992049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065577, "excess_performance": -0.191202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065933, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032093, "read": "Falling" 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21.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.010038, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.026356, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.083109, "worst_return": -0.0805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01497, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.074502, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.105131, "worst_return": -0.092262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023224, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.100692, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.03279, "worst_return": -0.105119, "sufficient": true }, { 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35.166758, "activity_lines": [ 23.03403, 23.098329, 23.371719, 23.564445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.175, "volume": 21020, "typical_volume": 411143.95, "trend": 23.755994, "fair_value": 28.369463, "relative_strength": -13.318238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.75184, "energy": 31.762004, "activity_lines": [ 23.091613, 23.094696, 23.315224, 23.52325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.6351, "volume": 45914, "typical_volume": 362378.15, "trend": 23.682774, "fair_value": 28.311684, "relative_strength": -15.612875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.629505, "energy": 37.805308, "activity_lines": [ 22.942847, 23.004133, 23.213931, 23.450934 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.0532, "volume": 31305, "typical_volume": 295374.7, "trend": 23.609881, "fair_value": 28.249676, "relative_strength": -19.992049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.695217, "energy": 60.786437, "activity_lines": [ 22.63808, 22.819185, 23.069041, 23.345801 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }