{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d030dce4-0351-4953-bb48-05bf1c3acb81", "symbol": "2110", "name": "Saudi Cable Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.059, "architecture_energy": 16.063, "architecture_maturity": 21.629, "architecture_confidence": 93.711, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.14, "rotation_up": 26.98, "upward_expansion": 52.34, "deceleration": 88.49, "rotation_down": 31.28, "downward_expansion": 20.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 160.839997, 162.514543, 160.934761, 160.254408 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 165.199997, "trend_reference": 159.383333, "distance_from_trend": 0.036495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.680769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.520048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.705247, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004255, "excess_performance": 0.036085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036495, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.520048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097052, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045071, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004255, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.568745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121801, "relative_activity": 0.62338, "balance": 1.568745, "dry_up": 0.921108, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07399, "annualized_volatility": 0.303526, "from_high_reference": -0.133263, "from_low_reference": 0.323718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.383333, "fair_value_reference": 108.680769, "structural_low": 143.600006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084128, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.34663, "worst_return": -0.08284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120859, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.153, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.253333, "worst_return": -0.119658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.124818, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.148797, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.842963, "worst_return": -0.299145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.298571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.293717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.235555, "worst_return": -0.638414, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.219612, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188034, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.055158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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153.833334, "fair_value": 104.013462, "relative_strength": 17.810277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.318668, "energy": 72.435953, "activity_lines": [ 168.839999, 162.127272, 159.725238, 158.075699 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 170.0, "volume": 103167, "typical_volume": 178679.4, "trend": 154.923334, "fair_value": 104.736539, "relative_strength": 14.059668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.006909, "energy": 69.153143, "activity_lines": [ 171.226666, 164.183636, 160.751905, 159.11871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 160.0, "volume": 191760, "typical_volume": 181388.75, "trend": 155.756668, "fair_value": 105.395513, "relative_strength": 8.07875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.865336, "energy": 66.019387, "activity_lines": [ 168.88, 164.22, 160.8, 159.446237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 159.399994, "volume": 148305, "typical_volume": 179857.75, "trend": 156.503334, "fair_value": 106.050641, "relative_strength": 7.489467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.121035, "energy": 32.898981, "activity_lines": [ 165.599998, 163.983635, 160.808571, 159.68129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 154.5, "volume": 164089, "typical_volume": 184230.35, "trend": 157.360001, "fair_value": 106.674359, "relative_strength": 4.757331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.524025, "energy": 12.331456, "activity_lines": [ 160.539998, 162.752726, 160.349047, 159.552043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 159.399994, "volume": 298684, "typical_volume": 193042.4, "trend": 157.853334, "fair_value": 107.329487, "relative_strength": 6.943953, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.396003, "energy": 19.429364, "activity_lines": [ 158.879997, 162.405452, 160.35857, 159.683655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 160.0, "volume": 135320, "typical_volume": 194834.75, "trend": 158.5, "fair_value": 107.988462, "relative_strength": 9.07288, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.951856, "energy": 17.861669, "activity_lines": [ 158.659998, 162.087271, 160.409047, 159.82215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 165.199997, "volume": 121801, "typical_volume": 195388.05, "trend": 159.383333, "fair_value": 108.680769, "relative_strength": 9.705247, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.059186, "energy": 16.062745, "activity_lines": [ 160.839997, 162.514543, 160.934761, 160.254408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }