{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d038a76f-7be5-4c2e-bf91-b541cc29f8a2", "symbol": "IWM", "name": "ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 2000 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.886, "architecture_energy": 45.154, "architecture_maturity": 47.418, "architecture_confidence": 58.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.71, "rotation_up": 41.22, "upward_expansion": 70.87, "deceleration": 73.4, "rotation_down": 28.54, "downward_expansion": 11.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 295.345333, 295.263237, 290.368441, 282.848364 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 301.56, "trend_reference": 274.407671, "distance_from_trend": 0.098949, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 220.96437, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.416644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142577, "excess_performance": 0.016952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098949, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034166, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015296, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142577, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.404531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96449387, "relative_activity": 0.7111, "balance": 1.404531, "dry_up": 0.801864, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033731, "annualized_volatility": 0.16509, "from_high_reference": -0.00495, "from_low_reference": 0.38615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 274.407671, "fair_value_reference": 220.96437, "structural_low": 238.128196, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052234, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.020363, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.034654, "worst_return": -0.112818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026518, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.038159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092891, "worst_return": -0.190839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046406, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.173565, "worst_return": -0.207791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.602618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.290973, "energy": 36.108597, "activity_lines": [ 292.824, 293.677673, 288.308462, 281.005417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 301.56, "volume": 96449387, "typical_volume": 135633989.95, "trend": 274.407671, "fair_value": 220.96437, "relative_strength": 3.416644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.886176, "energy": 45.154331, "activity_lines": [ 295.345333, 295.263237, 290.368441, 282.848364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }