{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d03a473e-e7ad-47fe-b82f-e4bc24d2381f", "symbol": "CPR", "name": "Davide Campari-Milano N.V.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.513, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.043, "architecture_energy": 17.204, "architecture_maturity": 62.763, "architecture_confidence": 48.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.93, "rotation_up": 41.91, "upward_expansion": 22.05, "deceleration": 40.81, "rotation_down": 13.76, "downward_expansion": 51.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.801333, 5.684945, 5.693873, 5.799038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.952, "trend_reference": 5.916699, "distance_from_trend": 0.005966, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.177692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.903921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04385, "excess_performance": -0.214741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100795, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037892, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.796449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36089054, "relative_activity": 1.35214, "balance": 1.796449, "dry_up": 1.346209, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044717, "annualized_volatility": 0.269733, "from_high_reference": -0.115505, "from_low_reference": 0.142752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.916699, "fair_value_reference": 7.177692, "structural_low": 5.274, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.02777, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.039571, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.146254, "worst_return": -0.159935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.04199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085143, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.133705, "worst_return": -0.280206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.072021, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.163981, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.234636, "worst_return": -0.277378, "sufficient": true }, { 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[ 5.590533, 5.552218, 5.671305, 5.795847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.896, "volume": 51506444, "typical_volume": 25859769.1, "trend": 5.907083, "fair_value": 7.214163, "relative_strength": -11.784652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.59978, "energy": 17.350434, "activity_lines": [ 5.701067, 5.616145, 5.679477, 5.79614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.952, "volume": 36089054, "typical_volume": 26690318.0, "trend": 5.916699, "fair_value": 7.177692, "relative_strength": -12.903921, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.043256, "energy": 17.20413, "activity_lines": [ 5.801333, 5.684945, 5.693873, 5.799038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }