{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d04d8ed7-97ab-4cc1-a612-0fa68ebd6ad8", "symbol": "CHWY", "name": "Chewy, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.779, "architecture_energy": 36.415, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.436, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.03, "rotation_up": 38.21, "upward_expansion": 22.93, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 19.15, "downward_expansion": 56.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 376.308, 362.030363, 370.205047, 389.214881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 386.0, "trend_reference": 419.674333, "distance_from_trend": -0.080239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 521.489871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.463261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166307, "excess_performance": -0.11164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025976, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166307, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.046642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.046642, "dry_up": 3.26201, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04842, "annualized_volatility": 0.482257, "from_high_reference": -0.511695, "from_low_reference": 0.187692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 419.674333, "fair_value_reference": 521.489871, "structural_low": 325.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.038479, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.042683, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.636532, "worst_return": -0.274419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.077527, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.144299, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.630435, "worst_return": -0.445455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.173547, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.193817, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.92029, "worst_return": -0.474138, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.00951, "energy": 74.211581, "activity_lines": [ 336.4, 343.907818, 379.081095, 404.649957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 374.309998, "volume": 6068, "typical_volume": 510.1, "trend": 439.940999, "fair_value": 525.119935, "relative_strength": -33.221198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.477221, "energy": 53.373498, "activity_lines": [ 350.069999, 347.904, 376.22819, 399.975505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 360.0, "volume": 392, "typical_volume": 529.7, "trend": 432.640999, "fair_value": 523.592435, "relative_strength": -34.583988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.091894, "energy": 42.283929, "activity_lines": [ 355.682666, 349.547272, 372.253809, 394.818021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 386.0, "volume": 507, "typical_volume": 544.55, "trend": 426.207666, "fair_value": 522.541153, "relative_strength": -29.401632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.658572, "energy": 30.342018, "activity_lines": [ 367.928666, 356.117818, 371.065143, 391.808924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 386.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 533.95, "trend": 419.674333, "fair_value": 521.489871, "relative_strength": -28.463261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.779096, "energy": 36.415053, "activity_lines": [ 376.308, 362.030363, 370.205047, 389.214881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }