{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d05103b5-9fc4-47b8-98d9-47698414453c", "symbol": "SCHW", "name": "The Charles Schwab Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.073, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.294, "architecture_energy": 77.175, "architecture_maturity": 14.339, "architecture_confidence": 56.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.09, "rotation_up": 70.22, "upward_expansion": 64.94, "deceleration": 26.51, "rotation_down": 16.08, "downward_expansion": 27.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1758.016016, 1719.409102, 1658.968918, 1650.815039 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1747.77002, "trend_reference": 1657.857243, "distance_from_trend": 0.054234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1459.841646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.675389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01771, "excess_performance": 0.036956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006754, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.963796, "dry_up": 0.665185, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025087, "annualized_volatility": 0.262175, "from_high_reference": -0.04819, "from_low_reference": 0.189769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1657.857243, "fair_value_reference": 1459.841646, "structural_low": 1469.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029178, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001334, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054228, "worst_return": -0.067483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013097, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051002, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027641, "worst_return": -0.151437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008774, "worst_return": -0.010331, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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1800.0, "volume": 337, "typical_volume": 233.85, "trend": 1663.740621, "fair_value": 1447.57371, "relative_strength": 2.99424, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.009378, "energy": 78.976297, "activity_lines": [ 1725.613338, 1656.400362, 1625.025952, 1634.143765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1747.77002, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 205.65, "trend": 1661.490723, "fair_value": 1451.748806, "relative_strength": 0.703899, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.680061, "energy": 74.981933, "activity_lines": [ 1745.559343, 1680.736912, 1636.644026, 1639.565017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1747.77002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146.2, "trend": 1659.673983, "fair_value": 1455.866343, "relative_strength": 0.315641, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.870087, "energy": 78.493911, "activity_lines": [ 1755.520012, 1701.768553, 1647.980565, 1645.131423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1747.77002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146.2, "trend": 1657.857243, "fair_value": 1459.841646, "relative_strength": 0.675389, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.293592, "energy": 77.17512, "activity_lines": [ 1758.016016, 1719.409102, 1658.968918, 1650.815039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }