{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0616294-05c0-4377-aa2f-fb82638ac0e8", "symbol": "HLGYO", "name": "Halk Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.852, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.986, "architecture_energy": 53.807, "architecture_maturity": 22.478, "architecture_confidence": 79.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.29, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 8.15, "deceleration": 52.51, "rotation_down": 66.01, "downward_expansion": 81.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 4.577273, 4.934715, 5.030986 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 5.032857, "distance_from_trend": -0.10985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.006796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.426805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107682, "excess_performance": -0.212655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.574006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213348570, "relative_activity": 1.83195, "balance": 0.88862, "dry_up": 1.430893, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080061, "annualized_volatility": 0.407728, "from_high_reference": -0.26065, "from_low_reference": 0.463296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.032857, "fair_value_reference": 3.006796, "structural_low": 4.164116, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015871, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.025815, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20122, "worst_return": -0.082005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.322982, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.403453, "worst_return": 0.242511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.619032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.117711, "worst_return": 0.120354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003731, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093591, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096244, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 76.644616, "activity_lines": [ 4.482667, 4.817257, 5.137362, 5.125195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 4.45, "volume": 173845283, "typical_volume": 125615085.55, "trend": 5.010687, "fair_value": 2.981413, "relative_strength": -11.111158, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.103918, "energy": 73.90008, "activity_lines": [ 4.443333, 4.697455, 5.05894, 5.089735 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4.65, "volume": 188532525, "typical_volume": 118746807.25, "trend": 5.029921, "fair_value": 2.994267, "relative_strength": -2.970937, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.184112, "energy": 58.269385, "activity_lines": [ 4.498667, 4.641455, 5.003324, 5.066464 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 4.48, "volume": 213348570, "typical_volume": 116459820.0, "trend": 5.032857, "fair_value": 3.006796, "relative_strength": -9.426805, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.985737, "energy": 53.807198, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 4.577273, 4.934715, 5.030986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }