{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d064b29c-f83c-4071-b290-6fd06b83e839", "symbol": "RPM", "name": "RPM Automotive Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.138, "architecture_energy": 68.871, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.13, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 56.92, "downward_expansion": 80.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0162, 0.016236, 0.018119, 0.021716 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.028933, "distance_from_trend": -0.447005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.062401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.743592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.796103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.714286, "excess_performance": -0.777991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.447005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.743592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.637961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.714286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.053092, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.053092, "dry_up": 0.466589, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072115, "annualized_volatility": 0.785553, "from_high_reference": -0.774648, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028933, "fair_value_reference": 0.062401, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.009284, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.215686, "worst_return": -0.446429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046042, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.074156, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.45098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.09, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.13063, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.036145, "worst_return": -0.647059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.232647, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.32737, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.123077, "worst_return": -0.562791, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.156627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", 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"typical_volume": 1990157.55, "trend": 0.0339, "fair_value": 0.06458, "relative_strength": -64.983068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.021405, "energy": 69.785561, "activity_lines": [ 0.016067, 0.017218, 0.020319, 0.025802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.016, "volume": 290, "typical_volume": 1377313.15, "trend": 0.0327, "fair_value": 0.064042, "relative_strength": -64.218063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.634554, "energy": 68.955799, "activity_lines": [ 0.015933, 0.016764, 0.019633, 0.024647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 707513, "typical_volume": 1335821.5, "trend": 0.031533, "fair_value": 0.063478, "relative_strength": -61.056503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.141342, "energy": 68.102774, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.016618, 0.019129, 0.023634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 1660044, "typical_volume": 1299989.6, "trend": 0.0302, "fair_value": 0.062939, "relative_strength": -63.43911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.786853, "energy": 69.190714, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.016382, 0.018595, 0.022632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1268700.95, "trend": 0.028933, "fair_value": 0.062401, "relative_strength": -63.796103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.13835, "energy": 68.871319, "activity_lines": [ 0.0162, 0.016236, 0.018119, 0.021716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }