{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d06778d8-2805-4076-9903-075fed1359df", "symbol": "600425", "name": "Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials and Chemicals Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.515, "architecture_energy": 45.333, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.795, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.27, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 41.59, "downward_expansion": 70.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.430667, 3.408665, 3.529179, 3.705793 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 3.944421, "distance_from_trend": -0.112671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.829513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.107406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237473, "excess_performance": -0.194269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74237662, "relative_activity": 1.070106, "balance": 0.478096, "dry_up": 1.04378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047476, "annualized_volatility": 0.220335, "from_high_reference": -0.312377, "from_low_reference": 0.086957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.944421, "fair_value_reference": 3.829513, "structural_low": 3.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.010975, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.004315, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.217532, "worst_return": -0.106557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.29863, "worst_return": -0.157965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084007, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.038822, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.509859, "worst_return": -0.044619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -67.781079, "energy": 68.661799, "activity_lines": [ 3.360667, 3.427687, 3.625598, 3.814929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.33, "volume": 81986200, "typical_volume": 80207753.4, "trend": 3.992088, "fair_value": 3.837239, "relative_strength": -18.345783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.821823, "energy": 66.066798, "activity_lines": [ 3.348667, 3.395656, 3.577871, 3.770213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.46, "volume": 64870375, "typical_volume": 74350900.65, "trend": 3.966421, "fair_value": 3.833491, "relative_strength": -15.109576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.541337, "energy": 59.716625, "activity_lines": [ 3.389333, 3.396147, 3.548668, 3.735885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 74237662, "typical_volume": 69374123.2, "trend": 3.944421, "fair_value": 3.829513, "relative_strength": -16.107406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.51484, "energy": 45.332821, "activity_lines": [ 3.430667, 3.408665, 3.529179, 3.705793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }