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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.746, "architecture_energy": 7.607, "architecture_maturity": 65.452, "architecture_confidence": 76.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.66, "rotation_up": 19.77, "upward_expansion": 55.71, "deceleration": 87.5, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 19.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.978667, 77.004545, 76.784743, 75.763997 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.550003, "trend_reference": 73.748785, "distance_from_trend": -0.029814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.77159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.622528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068281, "excess_performance": -0.05214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073357, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.372609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53356700, "relative_activity": 1.822947, "balance": 1.372609, "dry_up": 1.070292, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046211, "annualized_volatility": 0.245002, "from_high_reference": -0.112833, "from_low_reference": 0.176444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.748785, "fair_value_reference": 55.77159, 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5.078222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.420307, "energy": 42.55819, "activity_lines": [ 78.929331, 78.574544, 77.185175, 75.675465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.279999, "volume": 30858800, "typical_volume": 28315885.0, "trend": 73.427456, "fair_value": 55.574306, "relative_strength": 0.396763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.009079, "energy": 29.428989, "activity_lines": [ 78.125332, 78.183999, 77.217184, 75.885123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.550003, "volume": 53356700, "typical_volume": 29269475.0, "trend": 73.748785, "fair_value": 55.77159, "relative_strength": -8.622528, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.745912, "energy": 7.607117, "activity_lines": [ 75.978667, 77.004545, 76.784743, 75.763997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }