{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0721e95-4575-49fc-958b-e103b7e0cb09", "symbol": "SOHU", "name": "Sohu.Com Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.147, "architecture_energy": 23.79, "architecture_maturity": 80.875, "architecture_confidence": 75.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.09, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 20.2, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 23.4, "downward_expansion": 56.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.442667, 13.092909, 13.489095, 14.040086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.71, "trend_reference": 14.796667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.988942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.590918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.16198, "excess_performance": -0.349434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16198, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132390, "relative_activity": 0.523641, "balance": 0.519854, "dry_up": 0.620996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072408, "annualized_volatility": 0.273596, "from_high_reference": -0.207514, "from_low_reference": 0.180879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.796667, "fair_value_reference": 12.988942, "structural_low": 11.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.013112, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.000954, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.311132, "worst_return": -0.139596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032318, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.031609, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.648746, "worst_return": -0.185756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048477, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019403, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.467778, "worst_return": -0.200356, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.646356, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -66.354156, "energy": 72.620852, "activity_lines": [ 12.501333, 12.896182, 13.850095, 14.458022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.08, "volume": 178673, "typical_volume": 252846.15, "trend": 15.053, "fair_value": 12.956763, "relative_strength": -22.744572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.575893, "energy": 56.924955, "activity_lines": [ 12.668, 12.834, 13.7085, 14.326688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.87, "volume": 135660, "typical_volume": 251919.8, "trend": 14.952333, "fair_value": 12.965032, "relative_strength": -22.19134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.031263, "energy": 44.162722, "activity_lines": [ 12.788, 12.781091, 13.563286, 14.185849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.87, "volume": 181292, "typical_volume": 253719.25, "trend": 14.887, "fair_value": 12.974071, "relative_strength": -16.086794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.659702, "energy": 28.032746, "activity_lines": [ 13.209333, 12.954182, 13.5285, 14.116022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.71, "volume": 132390, "typical_volume": 252825.85, "trend": 14.796667, "fair_value": 12.988942, "relative_strength": -20.590918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.146967, "energy": 23.789598, "activity_lines": [ 13.442667, 13.092909, 13.489095, 14.040086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }