{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d075695a-0c26-4085-b025-66e8ebc22349", "symbol": "HESC", "name": "HSBC MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Screened UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.95, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.409, "architecture_energy": 34.826, "architecture_maturity": 3.508, "architecture_confidence": 63.735, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.36, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 20.88, "deceleration": 55.21, "rotation_down": 61.51, "downward_expansion": 43.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.948667, 29.397637, 29.866071, 29.680903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.915001, "trend_reference": 29.3615, "distance_from_trend": 0.018851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.893404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.255099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.047444, "excess_performance": -0.035439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139925, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129, "relative_activity": 0.042475, "balance": 0.45203, "dry_up": 1.087221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036269, "annualized_volatility": 0.255314, "from_high_reference": -0.05824, "from_low_reference": 0.249061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.3615, "fair_value_reference": 22.893404, "structural_low": 26.950001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016526, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051735, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.001728, "worst_return": -0.031325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.018651, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018651, "worst_return": -0.018651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.070779, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070779, "worst_return": 0.070779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 28.73, "volume": 3352, "typical_volume": 3236.95, "trend": 29.196666, "fair_value": 22.770962, "relative_strength": -4.750253, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.010869, "energy": 25.466417, "activity_lines": [ 29.291, 29.859454, 30.035881, 29.735172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 8638, "typical_volume": 3651.85, "trend": 29.2595, "fair_value": 22.8245, "relative_strength": -8.20612, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.868825, "energy": 52.823036, "activity_lines": [ 28.683, 29.400455, 29.84569, 29.638613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.915001, "volume": 129, "typical_volume": 3037.1, "trend": 29.3615, "fair_value": 22.893404, "relative_strength": -2.255099, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.408722, "energy": 34.825842, "activity_lines": [ 28.948667, 29.397637, 29.866071, 29.680903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }