{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d07d5c48-8b2d-499c-80b3-a28b62c8b885", "symbol": "HUN", "name": "Global X Natural Gas ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.892, "architecture_energy": 86.58, "architecture_maturity": 34.674, "architecture_confidence": 86.955, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 13.71, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 77.89, "downward_expansion": 94.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.873333, 7.019455, 7.220143, 7.446602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.67, "trend_reference": 7.697, "distance_from_trend": -0.133429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.429872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.27817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18059, "excess_performance": -0.301011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.184143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76000, "relative_activity": 1.540332, "balance": 0.184143, "dry_up": 0.869477, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036905, "annualized_volatility": 0.238014, "from_high_reference": -0.285102, "from_low_reference": 0.015221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.697, "fair_value_reference": 8.429872, "structural_low": 6.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015847, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.012834, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.162202, "worst_return": -0.171393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00618, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.079363, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.272936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.230714, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.361607, "worst_return": -0.351491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.328555, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.347841, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.150298, "worst_return": -0.426132, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076477, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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7.366667, 7.458, 7.733905, 7.823742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.45, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 68920.0, "trend": 7.893, "fair_value": 8.639038, "relative_strength": -16.024515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.12305, "energy": 62.069966, "activity_lines": [ 7.385333, 7.442182, 7.686857, 7.79314 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.39, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 67030.0, "trend": 7.860333, "fair_value": 8.610897, "relative_strength": -15.924828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.815668, "energy": 63.392475, "activity_lines": [ 7.39, 7.422182, 7.641238, 7.760688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.24, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 66785.0, "trend": 7.817333, "fair_value": 8.584231, "relative_strength": -17.571889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.012112, "energy": 72.407307, "activity_lines": [ 7.338, 7.378909, 7.584905, 7.720667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.0, "volume": 78000, "typical_volume": 70035.0, "trend": 7.789667, "fair_value": 8.555577, "relative_strength": -19.684752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.026793, "energy": 82.812494, "activity_lines": [ 7.22, 7.299636, 7.509429, 7.667935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.88, "volume": 49300, "typical_volume": 71985.0, "trend": 7.762667, "fair_value": 8.524295, "relative_strength": -20.222384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.03135, "energy": 91.173234, "activity_lines": [ 7.09, 7.211818, 7.426762, 7.609247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.13, "volume": 19700, "typical_volume": 63975.0, "trend": 7.742, "fair_value": 8.495577, "relative_strength": -16.973987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.837144, "energy": 81.456612, "activity_lines": [ 7.069333, 7.182182, 7.372143, 7.56843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 26600, "typical_volume": 57680.0, "trend": 7.716333, "fair_value": 8.46641, "relative_strength": -18.687947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.278575, "energy": 82.709436, "activity_lines": [ 6.993333, 7.118182, 7.303048, 7.514108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.67, "volume": 76000, "typical_volume": 49340.0, "trend": 7.697, "fair_value": 8.429872, "relative_strength": -23.27817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.89193, "energy": 86.580061, "activity_lines": [ 6.873333, 7.019455, 7.220143, 7.446602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }