{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d07d8c23-1fdc-4e94-9f32-afaf6c91ea96", "symbol": "002100", "name": "TECON BIOLOGY Co.LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.862, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.962, "architecture_energy": 22.939, "architecture_maturity": 66.359, "architecture_confidence": 70.121, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.56, "rotation_up": 62.68, "upward_expansion": 36.3, "deceleration": 35.14, "rotation_down": 12.14, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.075333, 6.788538, 6.816459, 6.946793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.08, "trend_reference": 7.069275, "distance_from_trend": 0.001517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.870993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.146738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024793, "excess_performance": -0.032193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07481, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110014350, "relative_activity": 0.909736, "balance": 0.323868, "dry_up": 1.108542, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07455, "annualized_volatility": 0.32852, "from_high_reference": -0.152475, "from_low_reference": 0.244288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.069275, "fair_value_reference": 6.870993, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.012988, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.006566, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.215492, "worst_return": -0.071642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017685, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.055049, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.105059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028524, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379481, "worst_return": -0.179742, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -34.212298, "energy": 24.587719, "activity_lines": [ 6.564667, 6.461136, 6.792005, 6.940825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.98, "volume": 148651783, "typical_volume": 131764820.05, "trend": 7.077275, "fair_value": 6.881344, "relative_strength": -2.355685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.738148, "energy": 23.602904, "activity_lines": [ 6.765333, 6.545011, 6.785871, 6.933646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.28, "volume": 98328989, "typical_volume": 125317793.5, "trend": 7.078942, "fair_value": 6.876903, "relative_strength": 3.526438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.585414, "energy": 21.285893, "activity_lines": [ 7.002, 6.688661, 6.809736, 6.946725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.08, "volume": 110014350, "typical_volume": 120930025.15, "trend": 7.069275, "fair_value": 6.870993, "relative_strength": -4.146738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.962151, "energy": 22.938999, "activity_lines": [ 7.075333, 6.788538, 6.816459, 6.946793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }