{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0884ade-f070-4fd7-8e89-fd9034ccab7e", "symbol": "TRN", "name": "Trainline plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.176, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.224, "architecture_energy": 66.978, "architecture_maturity": 36.907, "architecture_confidence": 73.186, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.6, "rotation_up": 71.79, "upward_expansion": 86.46, "deceleration": 45.38, "rotation_down": 9.54, "downward_expansion": 13.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 236.786667, 229.090909, 226.362857, 223.396989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 253.8, "trend_reference": 218.54, "distance_from_trend": 0.161343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 288.234615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.146213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230844, "excess_performance": 0.179609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230844, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.591889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8102587, "relative_activity": 1.02035, "balance": 2.591889, "dry_up": 0.896093, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065943, "annualized_volatility": 0.312689, "from_high_reference": -0.174902, "from_low_reference": 0.425843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 218.54, "fair_value_reference": 288.234615, "structural_low": 178.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.040286, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.224456, "worst_return": -0.150134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.100984, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.086247, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258176, "worst_return": -0.221127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02491, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063975, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241215, "worst_return": -0.42719, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 220.4, "volume": 4477971, "typical_volume": 9023296.95, "trend": 216.773333, "fair_value": 288.241026, "relative_strength": -12.92404, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.450338, "energy": 14.915503, "activity_lines": [ 221.213333, 220.094546, 222.109047, 219.736344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 237.2, "volume": 9604260, "typical_volume": 8888793.15, "trend": 217.486667, "fair_value": 288.210256, "relative_strength": -6.845226, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.465362, "energy": 33.122057, "activity_lines": [ 227.12, 223.261818, 223.535238, 221.054194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.8, "volume": 8102587, "typical_volume": 7940989.5, "trend": 218.54, "fair_value": 288.234615, "relative_strength": -0.146213, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.223908, "energy": 66.97767, "activity_lines": [ 236.786667, 229.090909, 226.362857, 223.396989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }