{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0902984-25dc-4993-b709-5412302f0466", "symbol": "MDF", "name": "Duro Felguera, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.158, "architecture_energy": 17.702, "architecture_maturity": 51.96, "architecture_confidence": 77.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.55, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 56.87, "deceleration": 93.72, "rotation_down": 25.31, "downward_expansion": 13.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.199267, 0.202545, 0.194151, 0.189244 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.2025, "trend_reference": 0.184527, "distance_from_trend": 0.097402, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.382789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.470988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.719176, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131285, "excess_performance": 0.006854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.470988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132726, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131285, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.957829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 637857, "relative_activity": 0.78297, "balance": 1.957829, "dry_up": 1.053093, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106287, "annualized_volatility": 0.668135, "from_high_reference": -0.361199, "from_low_reference": 0.446429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.184527, "fair_value_reference": 0.382789, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062512, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02, "worst_return": -0.084967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04, "worst_return": -0.04, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.144, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.239237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.144, "worst_return": -0.144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.413257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.206299, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.550595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.244898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": -13.915296, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.049106, "energy": 42.789865, "activity_lines": [ 0.2076, 0.201235, 0.190283, 0.186364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.199, "volume": 426669, "typical_volume": 815764.15, "trend": 0.183643, "fair_value": 0.388773, "relative_strength": -14.370677, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.555089, "energy": 26.308362, "activity_lines": [ 0.201967, 0.202211, 0.191717, 0.18739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.194, "volume": 856801, "typical_volume": 803371.0, "trend": 0.18411, "fair_value": 0.38585, "relative_strength": -16.45491, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.769237, "energy": 20.448074, "activity_lines": [ 0.198333, 0.201802, 0.192575, 0.188058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2025, "volume": 637857, "typical_volume": 814663.15, "trend": 0.184527, "fair_value": 0.382789, "relative_strength": -13.719176, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.157873, "energy": 17.701862, "activity_lines": [ 0.199267, 0.202545, 0.194151, 0.189244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }