{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d094b28b-9615-43fd-a6c9-e5b45f8e4768", "symbol": "CPSM", "name": "CALAMOS S&P 500 STRUCTURED ALT PROTECTION ETF MAY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.614, "architecture_energy": 68.204, "architecture_maturity": 82.185, "architecture_confidence": 79.15, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.13, "rotation_up": 65.05, "upward_expansion": 89.34, "deceleration": 44.85, "rotation_down": 19.8, "downward_expansion": 13.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.374507, 29.326396, 29.261429, 29.170951 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.48, "trend_reference": 29.044573, "distance_from_trend": 0.014992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.562845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069556, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.715766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024857, "excess_performance": -0.100768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014992, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001339, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.956798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14634, "relative_activity": 0.507049, "balance": 2.956798, "dry_up": 0.467394, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005158, "annualized_volatility": 0.013116, "from_high_reference": -0.005734, "from_low_reference": 0.062342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.044573, "fair_value_reference": 27.562845, "structural_low": 28.73, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003663, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.002861, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009729, "worst_return": -0.002078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039669, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013737, "worst_return": 0.011321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027306, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078303, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027306, "worst_return": 0.027306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 77.614468, "energy": 68.203536, "activity_lines": [ 29.374507, 29.326396, 29.261429, 29.170951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }