{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d09833b8-4042-4a02-85e2-d57f168ecf4d", "symbol": "4420", "name": "Kwang Ming Silk Mill Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.276, "architecture_energy": 53.917, "architecture_maturity": 78.424, "architecture_confidence": 94.835, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 59.64, "rotation_down": 52.49, "downward_expansion": 82.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.766667, 36.037273, 37.30381, 39.077933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.799999, "trend_reference": 41.583148, "distance_from_trend": -0.115026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.458872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.295646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229239, "excess_performance": -0.670611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080861, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.422956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.351484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89256, "relative_activity": 0.351947, "balance": 0.351484, "dry_up": 0.518919, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054557, "annualized_volatility": 0.204897, "from_high_reference": -0.305633, "from_low_reference": 0.082353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.583148, "fair_value_reference": 39.458872, "structural_low": 34.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010934, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.037289, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.02349, "worst_return": -0.064871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011475, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.171521, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.007968, "worst_return": -0.12892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051898, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.188018, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.018033, "worst_return": -0.085763, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.167779, "energy": 74.783836, "activity_lines": [ 35.566667, 36.256364, 37.941506, 39.850684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.450001, "volume": 134081, "typical_volume": 269445.7, "trend": 41.919842, "fair_value": 39.315863, "relative_strength": -43.431137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.405713, "energy": 66.048017, "activity_lines": [ 35.373334, 35.999091, 37.531667, 39.408246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 36.799999, "volume": 89256, "typical_volume": 253606.5, "trend": 41.583148, "fair_value": 39.458872, "relative_strength": -42.295646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.276269, "energy": 53.917224, "activity_lines": [ 35.766667, 36.037273, 37.30381, 39.077933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }