{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d09ca879-be4b-4e69-ae71-ca01154834e5", "symbol": "SRIPANWA", "name": "Sri panwa Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.27, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.599, "architecture_energy": 32.933, "architecture_maturity": 11.855, "architecture_confidence": 62.884, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.25, "rotation_up": 54.02, "upward_expansion": 75.81, "deceleration": 58.13, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 4.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.153333, 5.138182, 5.119286, 5.103733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.051219, "distance_from_trend": 0.029454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.536594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146234, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.914811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090646, "excess_performance": -0.101679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142700, "relative_activity": 0.481834, "balance": 0.374809, "dry_up": 0.510197, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021006, "annualized_volatility": 0.175812, "from_high_reference": -0.028037, "from_low_reference": 0.167708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.051219, "fair_value_reference": 4.536594, "structural_low": 4.748747, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.011633, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.17, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023264, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.043659, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.176008, "worst_return": -0.141975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090181, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.211306, "worst_return": -0.154321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 64.121946, "energy": 45.246798, "activity_lines": [ 5.146667, 5.123636, 5.111912, 5.082555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.05, "volume": 230200, "typical_volume": 341235.0, "trend": 5.022802, "fair_value": 4.527827, "relative_strength": -12.643867, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.013155, "energy": 21.767457, "activity_lines": [ 5.12, 5.113636, 5.106429, 5.084958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.15, "volume": 52400, "typical_volume": 301430.0, "trend": 5.036177, "fair_value": 4.532795, "relative_strength": -9.6073, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.435002, "energy": 27.473859, "activity_lines": [ 5.13, 5.121818, 5.110714, 5.093164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 142700, "typical_volume": 296160.0, "trend": 5.051219, "fair_value": 4.536594, "relative_strength": -7.914811, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.599111, "energy": 32.933237, "activity_lines": [ 5.153333, 5.138182, 5.119286, 5.103733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }