{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0a4e0ea-7d07-45e3-9996-29273f49a520", "symbol": "VFCO34", "name": "V.F. Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.389, "architecture_energy": 74.377, "architecture_maturity": 42.222, "architecture_confidence": 64.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 8.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.11, "rotation_down": 79.33, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.656, 41.35724, 43.21094, 44.855668 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.84, "trend_reference": 47.202482, "distance_from_trend": -0.198347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.271821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.851867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288956, "excess_performance": -0.231908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29, "relative_activity": 0.468876, "balance": 0.763158, "dry_up": 0.185934, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04635, "annualized_volatility": 0.295732, "from_high_reference": -0.303052, "from_low_reference": 0.163593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.202482, "fair_value_reference": 44.271821, "structural_low": 36.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.511111, "median_excess_return": -0.014421, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.311008, "worst_return": -0.279714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.07028, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.000108, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.560038, "worst_return": -0.450234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.246922, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.189403, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.372039, "worst_return": -0.40186, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.661208, "energy": 67.30974, "activity_lines": [ 43.600545, 44.162812, 45.752149, 47.25959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 102.7, "trend": 48.858749, "fair_value": 44.40106, "relative_strength": -7.24278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.609936, "energy": 62.7349, "activity_lines": [ 43.978666, 44.049622, 45.462951, 46.945137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 102.7, "trend": 48.563157, "fair_value": 44.387439, "relative_strength": -5.054338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.216977, "energy": 54.285305, "activity_lines": [ 44.192666, 43.986216, 45.221438, 46.649734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.240002, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 59.85, "trend": 48.199565, "fair_value": 44.385591, "relative_strength": -9.549105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.774605, "energy": 66.67314, "activity_lines": [ 43.573333, 43.601684, 44.833324, 46.241789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.52, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 60.4, "trend": 47.645305, "fair_value": 44.342156, "relative_strength": -23.275938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.757507, "energy": 75.103976, "activity_lines": [ 41.149333, 42.264025, 43.930322, 45.488268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.84, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 61.85, "trend": 47.202482, "fair_value": 44.271821, "relative_strength": -17.851867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.388699, "energy": 74.377251, "activity_lines": [ 39.656, 41.35724, 43.21094, 44.855668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }