{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0b02215-2994-4338-83a5-bd11f2177470", "symbol": "REAT", "name": "REACT Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.499, "architecture_energy": 60.31, "architecture_maturity": 50.047, "architecture_confidence": 88.492, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.18, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 70.97, "downward_expansion": 89.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.418333, 0.426909, 0.438286, 0.447215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.405, "trend_reference": 0.463167, "distance_from_trend": -0.125585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.648413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.375399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.915642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19, "excess_performance": -0.241235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.375399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.033071, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154341, "relative_activity": 1.536682, "balance": 0.033071, "dry_up": 0.689551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07042, "annualized_volatility": 0.207263, "from_high_reference": -0.313559, "from_low_reference": 0.0125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.463167, "fair_value_reference": 0.648413, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.024695, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046828, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.535714, "worst_return": -0.226415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.078908, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.129655, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.516129, "worst_return": -0.356322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.140974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.229988, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.483871, "worst_return": -0.415094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131737, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.425, "volume": 22781, "typical_volume": 104263.5, "trend": 0.469333, "fair_value": 0.653349, "relative_strength": -18.925837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.482842, "energy": 55.736723, "activity_lines": [ 0.428, 0.435909, 0.4445, 0.454043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.425, "volume": 53351, "typical_volume": 101513.55, "trend": 0.4665, "fair_value": 0.650946, "relative_strength": -19.453723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.357422, "energy": 54.588603, "activity_lines": [ 0.426, 0.432909, 0.442262, 0.451183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.405, "volume": 154341, "typical_volume": 100437.8, "trend": 0.463167, "fair_value": 0.648413, "relative_strength": -22.915642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.499067, "energy": 60.309768, "activity_lines": [ 0.418333, 0.426909, 0.438286, 0.447215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }