{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0c842a0-ad58-4e29-a057-203ad3995f23", "symbol": "HD9", "name": "Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.307, "architecture_energy": 47.123, "architecture_maturity": 5.208, "architecture_confidence": 73.067, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.94, "rotation_up": 17.4, "upward_expansion": 26.36, "deceleration": 47.89, "rotation_down": 64.72, "downward_expansion": 51.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.486666, 40.163273, 40.873095, 40.763118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.099998, "trend_reference": 40.715, "distance_from_trend": -0.015105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.228718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.305702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024004, "excess_performance": -0.130831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.91801, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3709, "relative_activity": 3.514307, "balance": 4.91801, "dry_up": 2.583618, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042567, "annualized_volatility": 0.225412, "from_high_reference": -0.093171, "from_low_reference": 0.154621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.715, "fair_value_reference": 31.228718, "structural_low": 35.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 8.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108257, "worst_return": -0.115371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002796, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10616, "worst_return": -0.173982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012039, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.133933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066083, "worst_return": -0.202566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020616, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.66, "volume": 2872, "typical_volume": 3978.5, "trend": 27.572667, "fair_value": 35.470385, "relative_strength": 16.155066, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.046571, "energy": 92.186845, 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"relative_strength": -13.807784, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.199255, "energy": 4.51867, "activity_lines": [ 41.036666, 41.256727, 41.345333, 41.100452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.950001, "volume": 125, "typical_volume": 872.95, "trend": 40.840334, "fair_value": 31.121923, "relative_strength": -18.773642, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.238567, "energy": 40.585517, "activity_lines": [ 39.938, 40.598364, 41.071381, 40.906366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.290001, "volume": 6968, "typical_volume": 1015.05, "trend": 40.77, "fair_value": 31.175705, "relative_strength": -16.296832, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.853367, "energy": 44.256574, "activity_lines": [ 39.481334, 40.280909, 40.936905, 40.806344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 3709, "typical_volume": 1055.4, "trend": 40.715, "fair_value": 31.228718, "relative_strength": -15.305702, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.306742, "energy": 47.122623, "activity_lines": [ 39.486666, 40.163273, 40.873095, 40.763118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }