{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0cff710-0d41-42da-84b3-0b5c5d034226", "symbol": "SCHP", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR US TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.103, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.814, "architecture_energy": 74.672, "architecture_maturity": 9.007, "architecture_confidence": 85.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.83, "rotation_up": 10.53, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 74.16, "downward_expansion": 93.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.934435, 26.023217, 26.154025, 26.222931 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.96, "trend_reference": 26.290945, "distance_from_trend": -0.012588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.038032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036823, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.002541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014684, "excess_performance": -0.140309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036823, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31574917, "relative_activity": 1.558708, "balance": 0.827579, "dry_up": 1.083264, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007191, "annualized_volatility": 0.036828, "from_high_reference": -0.026367, "from_low_reference": 0.008823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.290945, "fair_value_reference": 25.038032, "structural_low": 25.814546, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.001049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005879, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.033399, "worst_return": -0.036499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 8.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013729, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.028996, "worst_return": -0.069583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01871, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.041532, "worst_return": -0.051526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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18034291, "typical_volume": 19974433.75, "trend": 26.309394, "fair_value": 25.00638, "relative_strength": -8.899364, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.130776, "energy": 79.833521, "activity_lines": [ 26.004798, 26.112638, 26.22101, 26.272946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.87405, "volume": 17857752, "typical_volume": 19747138.8, "trend": 26.299889, "fair_value": 25.021465, "relative_strength": -9.554409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.923922, "energy": 81.261443, "activity_lines": [ 25.939504, 26.057084, 26.182228, 26.244859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.96, "volume": 31574917, "typical_volume": 20257109.5, "trend": 26.290945, "fair_value": 25.038032, "relative_strength": -12.002541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.813709, "energy": 74.671516, "activity_lines": [ 25.934435, 26.023217, 26.154025, 26.222931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }