{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0d31f63-c324-4fcc-8d33-c21df40cac2b", "symbol": "CHG", "name": "CHAPTERS Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.026, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.765, "architecture_energy": 71.485, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.466, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 73.26, "upward_expansion": 86.79, "deceleration": 50.56, "rotation_down": 12.28, "downward_expansion": 13.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.37, 39.772727, 36.604524, 35.094516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.450001, "trend_reference": 34.018333, "distance_from_trend": 0.306648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.79391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.543729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.765171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.457377, "excess_performance": 0.392737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.306648, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004147, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.543729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.395866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.329322, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.457377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59638, "relative_activity": 1.023077, "balance": 0.8587, "dry_up": 1.173803, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082374, "annualized_volatility": 0.460744, "from_high_reference": -0.006704, "from_low_reference": 0.770916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.018333, "fair_value_reference": 28.79391, "structural_low": 25.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": 0.01419, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.471264, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.087729, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.037887, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.710692, "worst_return": -0.188406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.117633, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090941, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.029851, "worst_return": -0.184821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.417001, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183091, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.654692, "worst_return": 0.241135, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.174757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.482269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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38.313334, 35.785454, 33.705952, 33.288494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.599998, "volume": 77925, "typical_volume": 72817.1, "trend": 33.883333, "fair_value": 28.271154, "relative_strength": 4.92756, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.770773, "energy": 69.830928, "activity_lines": [ 38.976666, 36.590909, 34.286904, 33.593871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 77552, "typical_volume": 68875.65, "trend": 33.916666, "fair_value": 28.441026, "relative_strength": 9.937637, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.353579, "energy": 83.954984, "activity_lines": [ 39.886666, 37.657272, 35.023095, 34.040107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.7, "volume": 58582, "typical_volume": 65011.2, "trend": 33.89, "fair_value": 28.602564, "relative_strength": 5.205131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.275876, "energy": 67.249445, "activity_lines": [ 39.933333, 38.346363, 35.604523, 34.413225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.450001, "volume": 59638, "typical_volume": 58292.8, "trend": 34.018333, "fair_value": 28.79391, "relative_strength": 14.765171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.764859, "energy": 71.484931, "activity_lines": [ 41.37, 39.772727, 36.604524, 35.094516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }