{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0f087bc-91d3-406f-b3db-aca9ec932b47", "symbol": "MBG", "name": "Mercedes-Benz Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.977, "architecture_energy": 28.072, "architecture_maturity": 81.09, "architecture_confidence": 83.303, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.9, "rotation_up": 26.53, "upward_expansion": 15.83, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 65.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.112, 45.664, 47.011988, 48.080289 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.084999, "trend_reference": 49.774762, "distance_from_trend": -0.054039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.845632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.744005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142721, "excess_performance": -0.207361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073962, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.525076, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8611522, "relative_activity": 0.844155, "balance": 1.525076, "dry_up": 0.988046, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052548, "annualized_volatility": 0.275529, "from_high_reference": -0.191677, "from_low_reference": 0.090309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.774762, "fair_value_reference": 50.845632, "structural_low": 43.185001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.008325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018053, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111748, "worst_return": -0.11435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017302, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.244709, "worst_return": -0.158158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069818, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00298, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.307278, "worst_return": -0.080914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.947411, "energy": 72.838903, "activity_lines": [ 44.745, 45.948, 47.615653, 48.903753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.775002, "volume": 7959163, "typical_volume": 10611081.7, "trend": 50.456814, "fair_value": 50.963344, "relative_strength": -15.265328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.258948, "energy": 52.155239, "activity_lines": [ 44.780001, 45.506728, 47.251504, 48.514314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.73, "volume": 12733758, "typical_volume": 10691845.8, "trend": 50.085577, "fair_value": 50.897239, "relative_strength": -13.288143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.273281, "energy": 41.864862, "activity_lines": [ 45.500001, 45.522273, 47.104076, 48.273875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.084999, "volume": 8611522, "typical_volume": 10201356.55, "trend": 49.774762, "fair_value": 50.845632, "relative_strength": -14.744005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.976785, "energy": 28.071516, "activity_lines": [ 46.112, 45.664, 47.011988, 48.080289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }