{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0f0e7e1-6d80-4038-bdf1-29a2daa96c42", "symbol": "AKAM", "name": "Akamai Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.23, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.056, "architecture_energy": 12.68, "architecture_maturity": 39.004, "architecture_confidence": 78.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.68, "rotation_up": 15.73, "upward_expansion": 41.15, "deceleration": 84.08, "rotation_down": 41.51, "downward_expansion": 37.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.331999, 103.056727, 106.705476, 103.750882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 99.080002, "trend_reference": 98.593334, "distance_from_trend": 0.004936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.392436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.962383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256244, "excess_performance": 0.081998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.164103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1242, "relative_activity": 5.585788, "balance": 4.164103, "dry_up": 2.249831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111813, "annualized_volatility": 0.71465, "from_high_reference": -0.28036, "from_low_reference": 0.634175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.593334, "fair_value_reference": 88.392436, "structural_low": 75.669998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004648, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.548797, "worst_return": -0.151289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044701, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.109504, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.258581, "worst_return": -0.179056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064519, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304358, "worst_return": -0.256607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007629, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.161814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018285, "active": false }, 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"relative_strength": 5.42481, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.096271, "energy": 23.587346, "activity_lines": [ 104.301332, 109.533272, 107.857334, 103.088237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.040001, "volume": 312, "typical_volume": 145.1, "trend": 96.918001, "fair_value": 88.272821, "relative_strength": 2.179933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.126763, "energy": 12.704743, "activity_lines": [ 104.016666, 107.377091, 107.795381, 103.542645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.839996, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": 160.25, "trend": 97.774334, "fair_value": 88.364936, "relative_strength": -2.119717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.037644, "energy": 7.369619, "activity_lines": [ 102.717331, 104.940908, 107.250952, 103.666645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.080002, "volume": 1242, "typical_volume": 222.35, "trend": 98.593334, "fair_value": 88.392436, "relative_strength": -4.962383, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.055747, "energy": 12.67976, "activity_lines": [ 101.331999, 103.056727, 106.705476, 103.750882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }