{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0f3b3f5-6122-4884-be48-8004e478d6b1", "symbol": "HIDR", "name": "HSBC MSCI Indonesia UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.594, "architecture_energy": 42.761, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.87, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 24.65, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 39.5, "downward_expansion": 65.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.003335, 39.68091, 41.128286, 44.00302 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.650002, "trend_reference": 48.551936, "distance_from_trend": -0.183349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.097685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.77183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328827, "excess_performance": -0.431696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15389, "relative_activity": 2.31099, "balance": 0.997155, "dry_up": 1.844407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061597, "annualized_volatility": 0.368357, "from_high_reference": -0.398619, "from_low_reference": 0.113608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.551936, "fair_value_reference": 63.097685, "structural_low": 35.605, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.013513, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.122018, "worst_return": -0.15721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057975, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.079866, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.188479, "worst_return": -0.313006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055846, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.037921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198596, "worst_return": -0.030504, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -34.584405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.364499, "energy": 54.28946, "activity_lines": [ 39.767334, 39.506637, 41.975524, 45.26833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.130001, "volume": 5208, "typical_volume": 6392.95, "trend": 49.322845, "fair_value": 63.318969, "relative_strength": -33.798341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.340666, "energy": 49.009609, "activity_lines": [ 40.009334, 39.632001, 41.542429, 44.627074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 15389, "typical_volume": 6659.05, "trend": 48.551936, "fair_value": 63.097685, "relative_strength": -34.77183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.594153, "energy": 42.761276, "activity_lines": [ 40.003335, 39.68091, 41.128286, 44.00302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }