{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0fc6da9-af7f-4838-9f1f-e26d252970ce", "symbol": "ELMRA", "name": "Elmera Group ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.177, "architecture_energy": 86.774, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.79, "rotation_up": 77.13, "upward_expansion": 94.62, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 9.41, "downward_expansion": 21.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.786667, 44.04091, 39.321585, 37.350793 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.549999, "trend_reference": 35.659674, "distance_from_trend": 0.277353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.84232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.804389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173202, "excess_performance": 0.048208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.277353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067395, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.411684, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.178044, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.35186, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 777036, "relative_activity": 1.244614, "balance": 0.963379, "dry_up": 1.249513, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044921, "annualized_volatility": 0.658025, "from_high_reference": -0.018319, "from_low_reference": 0.581597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.659674, "fair_value_reference": 29.84232, "structural_low": 28.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.000463, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.019358, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.184834, "worst_return": -0.159304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016717, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030161, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.293049, "worst_return": -0.197704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.154186, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.093491, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.399655, "worst_return": -0.055897, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 95.404073, "activity_lines": [ 42.553334, 37.750001, 35.10336, 34.51544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.900002, "volume": 961260, "typical_volume": 751431.5, "trend": 34.691874, "fair_value": 29.282293, "relative_strength": 23.834219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.977085, "energy": 92.283686, "activity_lines": [ 44.733335, 39.732728, 36.266475, 35.260548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.200001, "volume": 709706, "typical_volume": 720224.4, "trend": 35.052349, "fair_value": 29.473964, "relative_strength": 21.178734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.609029, "energy": 90.037153, "activity_lines": [ 45.933335, 41.504546, 37.388124, 36.003008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.75, "volume": 672378, "typical_volume": 637728.9, "trend": 35.356989, "fair_value": 29.662131, "relative_strength": 19.051171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.60606, "energy": 88.891293, "activity_lines": [ 45.900001, 42.924546, 38.395674, 36.693179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.549999, "volume": 777036, "typical_volume": 624319.05, "trend": 35.659674, "fair_value": 29.84232, "relative_strength": 17.804389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.177259, "energy": 86.774101, "activity_lines": [ 45.786667, 44.04091, 39.321585, 37.350793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }