{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d0ffa005-1e40-496c-8b96-b8d331d6170b", "symbol": "HSW", "name": "Hostelworld Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.917, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.775, "architecture_energy": 30.681, "architecture_maturity": 24.493, "architecture_confidence": 79.071, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.86, "rotation_up": 10.73, "upward_expansion": 10.58, "deceleration": 50.55, "rotation_down": 58.63, "downward_expansion": 74.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.566667, 106.790909, 107.614357, 107.251309 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 107.5, "trend_reference": 108.1667, "distance_from_trend": -0.006164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 128.741014, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.521484, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061002, "excess_performance": -0.112238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.211704, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 497062, "relative_activity": 0.830759, "balance": 1.211704, "dry_up": 0.788071, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063496, "annualized_volatility": 0.25328, "from_high_reference": -0.240175, "from_low_reference": 0.147074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.1667, "fair_value_reference": 128.741014, "structural_low": 93.716721, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004329, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006896, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.1375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065514, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.071806, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.090206, "worst_return": -0.27732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.089806, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.106024, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251918, "worst_return": -0.193814, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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106.9, 108.590909, 107.880964, 108.008077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.0, "volume": 339130, "typical_volume": 623643.05, "trend": 109.448852, "fair_value": 129.061171, "relative_strength": -15.141001, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.428756, "energy": 24.607556, "activity_lines": [ 105.833333, 107.845455, 107.756609, 107.681306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.0, "volume": 877205, "typical_volume": 635270.15, "trend": 108.716114, "fair_value": 128.869046, "relative_strength": -16.489922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.311991, "energy": 35.69912, "activity_lines": [ 104.866667, 106.954545, 107.532183, 107.329768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.5, "volume": 497062, "typical_volume": 598322.8, "trend": 108.1667, "fair_value": 128.741014, "relative_strength": -13.521484, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.774514, "energy": 30.680594, "activity_lines": [ 105.566667, 106.790909, 107.614357, 107.251309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }