{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1007a1f-dcc5-45ae-a55f-39642a8db389", "symbol": "XDEG", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets ex China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.326, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.877, "architecture_energy": 22.443, "architecture_maturity": 65.44, "architecture_confidence": 74.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.86, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 46.13, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 42.58, "downward_expansion": 28.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.808667, 180.290729, 180.443287, 175.353205 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 177.720001, "trend_reference": 168.375334, "distance_from_trend": 0.055499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.437656, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.500536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.304196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156805, "excess_performance": 0.10557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.500536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.946921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207, "relative_activity": 0.25804, "balance": 1.946921, "dry_up": 0.848604, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049875, "annualized_volatility": 0.298984, "from_high_reference": -0.098326, "from_low_reference": 0.797159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 168.375334, "fair_value_reference": 118.437656, "structural_low": 141.240005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004723, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.012823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.17385, "worst_return": -0.080856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010611, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.026149, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.315895, "worst_return": -0.106158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025085, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078972, "worst_return": -0.012701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018411, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 1056.5, "trend": 164.767334, "fair_value": 116.961919, "relative_strength": 10.63541, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.095974, "energy": 35.067078, "activity_lines": [ 183.669336, 185.373275, 179.87543, 173.569141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.059998, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 985.4, "trend": 166.097667, "fair_value": 117.435509, "relative_strength": 10.250436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.624382, "energy": 25.805489, "activity_lines": [ 179.632001, 183.583456, 180.163811, 174.233184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.970001, "volume": 506, "typical_volume": 824.75, "trend": 167.232001, "fair_value": 117.91131, "relative_strength": 7.164358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.083894, "energy": 24.407232, "activity_lines": [ 176.364, 181.44182, 180.138858, 174.67656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.720001, "volume": 207, "typical_volume": 802.2, "trend": 168.375334, "fair_value": 118.437656, "relative_strength": 9.304196, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.876737, "energy": 22.442931, "activity_lines": [ 175.808667, 180.290729, 180.443287, 175.353205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }