{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d105070b-a06f-4fca-a14b-f434e9013854", "symbol": "FRME", "name": "First Merchants Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.33, "architecture_energy": 38.395, "architecture_maturity": 57.93, "architecture_confidence": 50.041, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.45, "rotation_up": 47.5, "upward_expansion": 75.75, "deceleration": 70.02, "rotation_down": 22.67, "downward_expansion": 4.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.155333, 43.064, 41.989318, 41.171285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.59, "trend_reference": 40.276652, "distance_from_trend": 0.057436, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.442703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.272694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024959, "excess_performance": -0.162495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057436, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2070648, "relative_activity": 1.079028, "balance": 0.697033, "dry_up": 1.263997, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053461, "annualized_volatility": 0.236401, "from_high_reference": -0.060446, "from_low_reference": 0.264145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.276652, "fair_value_reference": 35.442703, "structural_low": 35.382141, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.021222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232168, "worst_return": -0.153312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041254, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.086437, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.211117, "worst_return": -0.123747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.094229, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210652, "worst_return": -0.334169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.900515, "energy": 71.799324, "activity_lines": [ 42.922, 41.912462, 40.818786, 40.247043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.59, "volume": 2351365, "typical_volume": 1924967.55, "trend": 39.704757, "fair_value": 35.164686, "relative_strength": 3.849512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.81472, "energy": 79.802646, "activity_lines": [ 43.583333, 42.538981, 41.272018, 40.577152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.18, "volume": 3217014, "typical_volume": 1979971.2, "trend": 39.892466, "fair_value": 35.260777, "relative_strength": 2.351822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.493327, "energy": 58.422366, "activity_lines": [ 43.608, 42.82639, 41.561267, 40.801361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.14, "volume": 2063380, "typical_volume": 1950855.25, "trend": 40.103703, "fair_value": 35.351877, "relative_strength": 1.764594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.499766, "energy": 45.374934, "activity_lines": [ 43.455333, 43.025818, 41.818255, 41.010879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.59, "volume": 2070648, "typical_volume": 1918993.15, "trend": 40.276652, "fair_value": 35.442703, "relative_strength": -4.272694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.329622, "energy": 38.394599, "activity_lines": [ 43.155333, 43.064, 41.989318, 41.171285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }