{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1107797-0124-449f-af58-010183141770", "symbol": "TNT-UN", "name": "True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 81.847, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.043, "architecture_energy": 61.133, "architecture_maturity": 4.623, "architecture_confidence": 73.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 63.26, "upward_expansion": 85.69, "deceleration": 49.64, "rotation_down": 16.08, "downward_expansion": 12.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.640116, 8.599422, 8.466562, 8.389875 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.63, "trend_reference": 8.356039, "distance_from_trend": 0.032786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.850272, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.915534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004983, "excess_performance": -0.115438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085642, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004983, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36000, "relative_activity": 0.64754, "balance": 1.147505, "dry_up": 0.882274, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020902, "annualized_volatility": 0.119901, "from_high_reference": -0.040318, "from_low_reference": 0.103208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.356039, "fair_value_reference": 8.850272, "structural_low": 7.822638, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015364, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.019606, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.153161, "worst_return": -0.421569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007496, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.098634, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.002958, "worst_return": -0.567142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.136811, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.285039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024345, "worst_return": -0.578081, "sufficient": false }, { 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8.588959, 8.493849, 8.361545, 8.332624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.78147, "volume": 40600, "typical_volume": 59900.0, "trend": 8.361445, "fair_value": 8.90881, "relative_strength": -6.764609, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.022339, "energy": 77.286212, "activity_lines": [ 8.666371, 8.562602, 8.41129, 8.360175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.55, "volume": 51700, "typical_volume": 57315.0, "trend": 8.358214, "fair_value": 8.877828, "relative_strength": -8.305452, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.478669, "energy": 71.951229, "activity_lines": [ 8.6414, 8.577931, 8.436475, 8.37234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.63, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 55595.0, "trend": 8.356039, "fair_value": 8.850272, "relative_strength": -9.915534, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.04282, "energy": 61.132681, "activity_lines": [ 8.640116, 8.599422, 8.466562, 8.389875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }