{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1152a29-9ec1-463b-b18a-53e4599c9367", "symbol": "MRVL", "name": "Marvell Technology Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.746, "architecture_energy": 23.245, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.59, "rotation_up": 17.95, "upward_expansion": 52.17, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 38.14, "downward_expansion": 20.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.646667, 222.032914, 217.161294, 192.710011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 218.72, "trend_reference": 158.759107, "distance_from_trend": 0.377685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.268386, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.422997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 56.857583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.725737, "excess_performance": 1.538283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.377685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.469116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.422997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190163, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.568576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.725737, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.451967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108291372, "relative_activity": 0.620249, "balance": 2.451967, "dry_up": 0.686643, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230405, "annualized_volatility": 0.718823, "from_high_reference": -0.336802, "from_low_reference": 2.566624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.759107, "fair_value_reference": 90.268386, "structural_low": 75.204882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02243, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.030594, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.123509, "worst_return": -0.321934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046298, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045316, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.048473, "worst_return": -0.414717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012133, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.29579, "worst_return": -0.295421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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249.465874, 205.032691, 174.018022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 235.81, "volume": 123760018, "typical_volume": 172560813.45, "trend": 143.875867, "fair_value": 86.785632, "relative_strength": 79.191336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.04423, "energy": 56.161725, "activity_lines": [ 257.379845, 250.908373, 211.5886, 180.275031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 188.68, "volume": 137697623, "typical_volume": 176289504.65, "trend": 147.365527, "fair_value": 87.592282, "relative_strength": 47.441572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.506668, "energy": 29.76287, "activity_lines": [ 231.081872, 242.493417, 212.911332, 183.16562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 194.23, "volume": 100311466, "typical_volume": 172383890.1, "trend": 150.965276, "fair_value": 88.424978, "relative_strength": 51.819892, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.614468, "energy": 27.251109, "activity_lines": [ 212.697157, 234.75028, 214.252977, 186.189135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.56, "volume": 133232255, "typical_volume": 173306418.0, "trend": 154.241146, "fair_value": 89.229022, "relative_strength": 43.765054, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.24189, "energy": 26.057654, "activity_lines": [ 199.840507, 225.479142, 214.460804, 188.550085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 218.72, "volume": 108291372, "typical_volume": 174593286.25, "trend": 158.759107, "fair_value": 90.268386, "relative_strength": 56.857583, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.745686, "energy": 23.244518, "activity_lines": [ 202.646667, 222.032914, 217.161294, 192.710011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }