{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d11798f4-f739-41a4-aef4-57ca04cab7c9", "symbol": "NETBAY", "name": "Netbay Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.143, "architecture_energy": 25.631, "architecture_maturity": 43.179, "architecture_confidence": 52.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.21, "rotation_up": 41.52, "upward_expansion": 32.47, "deceleration": 50.15, "rotation_down": 15.26, "downward_expansion": 43.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.766667, 12.956364, 12.489158, 13.607285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.3, "trend_reference": 15.460367, "distance_from_trend": -0.139736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.912614, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.025673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354625, "excess_performance": -0.54695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806984, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1712000, "relative_activity": 0.287042, "balance": 0.806984, "dry_up": 1.128301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113071, "annualized_volatility": 0.804339, "from_high_reference": -0.439815, "from_low_reference": 0.469613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.460367, "fair_value_reference": 16.912614, "structural_low": 9.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004016, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.020272, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.134228, "worst_return": -0.112426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014113, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.047797, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094118, "worst_return": -0.214159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043261, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169811, "worst_return": -0.513433, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"relative_strength": -35.752336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.059184, "energy": 39.7786, "activity_lines": [ 11.723333, 10.905455, 12.378682, 14.128084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.7, "volume": 13207800, "typical_volume": 5805420.0, "trend": 16.143029, "fair_value": 16.991735, "relative_strength": -28.4767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.363393, "energy": 28.665534, "activity_lines": [ 13.3, 11.780909, 12.537501, 14.08915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.5, "volume": 10192700, "typical_volume": 6072870.0, "trend": 15.925084, "fair_value": 16.966687, "relative_strength": -37.915048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.169769, "energy": 35.464107, "activity_lines": [ 13.716667, 12.247273, 12.505645, 13.918632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.5, "volume": 1805500, "typical_volume": 5994870.0, "trend": 15.700807, "fair_value": 16.942178, "relative_strength": -36.359218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.271609, "energy": 30.121192, "activity_lines": [ 13.9, 12.657273, 12.49588, 13.762175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.3, "volume": 1712000, "typical_volume": 5964275.0, "trend": 15.460367, "fair_value": 16.912614, "relative_strength": -36.025673, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.143091, "energy": 25.630681, "activity_lines": [ 13.766667, 12.956364, 12.489158, 13.607285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }