{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1179b90-0917-4b5e-a231-90a97e228413", "symbol": "LSUG", "name": "WisdomTree Sugar 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.698, "architecture_energy": 49.286, "architecture_maturity": 16.448, "architecture_confidence": 67.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.84, "rotation_up": 64.03, "upward_expansion": 48.08, "deceleration": 22.62, "rotation_down": 17.62, "downward_expansion": 25.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.83642, 1.77456, 1.746526, 1.755015 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.0725, "trend_reference": 1.75547, "distance_from_trend": 0.180596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.349874, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.38132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.189892, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.249247, "excess_performance": 0.078355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.180596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.38132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.249247, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119556, "relative_activity": 1.588173, "balance": 1.53293, "dry_up": 0.774971, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061008, "annualized_volatility": 0.57814, "from_high_reference": -0.215853, "from_low_reference": 0.379827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.75547, "fair_value_reference": 3.349874, "structural_low": 1.502, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013817, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026206, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.093954, "worst_return": -0.294793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108258, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.187173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02628, "worst_return": -0.262293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08241, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.823428, "worst_return": -0.088904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 73595, "typical_volume": 88437.7, "trend": 1.757327, "fair_value": 3.414195, "relative_strength": -20.862702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.419608, "energy": 16.69753, "activity_lines": [ 1.72972, 1.70544, 1.72884, 1.740518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.6998, "volume": 26889, "typical_volume": 86087.3, "trend": 1.750527, "fair_value": 3.391758, "relative_strength": -21.961564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.396305, "energy": 16.741726, "activity_lines": [ 1.728387, 1.703367, 1.722545, 1.736807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.7086, "volume": 13316, "typical_volume": 80105.95, "trend": 1.748353, "fair_value": 3.370076, "relative_strength": -21.113708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.376517, "energy": 13.85289, "activity_lines": [ 1.721987, 1.704985, 1.71694, 1.734102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0725, "volume": 119556, "typical_volume": 75278.95, "trend": 1.75547, "fair_value": 3.349874, "relative_strength": -6.189892, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.697958, "energy": 49.285883, "activity_lines": [ 1.83642, 1.77456, 1.746526, 1.755015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }