{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d11899e8-01d5-47cc-baf0-5ad5beda5eb4", "symbol": "300403", "name": "Hanyu Group Joint-Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.657, "architecture_energy": 56.358, "architecture_maturity": 57.93, "architecture_confidence": 85.663, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.25, "rotation_up": 14.99, "upward_expansion": 10.13, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 63.81, "downward_expansion": 83.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.238667, 9.575818, 10.21675, 10.777086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.64, "trend_reference": 11.672498, "distance_from_trend": -0.174127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.779733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.915143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.291694, "excess_performance": -0.299094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.182739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56517338, "relative_activity": 1.069497, "balance": 1.182739, "dry_up": 1.055761, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13775, "annualized_volatility": 0.63954, "from_high_reference": -0.463879, "from_low_reference": 0.155875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.672498, "fair_value_reference": 10.779733, "structural_low": 8.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.003092, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011279, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.353658, "worst_return": -0.200521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016229, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.051444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.19423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.203586, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.202525, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.174677, "worst_return": -0.176472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-75.384109, "energy": 51.48678, "activity_lines": [ 9.370667, 9.815818, 10.494394, 11.09687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.21, "volume": 54794298, "typical_volume": 51810816.8, "trend": 11.82834, "fair_value": 10.766456, "relative_strength": -29.339854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.231689, "energy": 58.068199, "activity_lines": [ 9.242667, 9.629273, 10.327033, 10.918269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.64, "volume": 56517338, "typical_volume": 52844801.55, "trend": 11.672498, "fair_value": 10.779733, "relative_strength": -28.915143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.657235, "energy": 56.358268, "activity_lines": [ 9.238667, 9.575818, 10.21675, 10.777086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }