{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d11f27a8-cebd-4c47-948c-1d2fd39b9ca9", "symbol": "RUI", "name": "Rubis", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.942, "architecture_energy": 18.833, "architecture_maturity": 50.612, "architecture_confidence": 58.101, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.32, "rotation_up": 38.52, "upward_expansion": 22.21, "deceleration": 40.3, "rotation_down": 23.02, "downward_expansion": 56.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.992001, 32.66455, 32.83239, 33.140688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 33.400002, "trend_reference": 33.546594, "distance_from_trend": -0.00437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.56882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.142106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04298, "excess_performance": -0.096291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 698080, "relative_activity": 0.919218, "balance": 0.673496, "dry_up": 0.678724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030568, "annualized_volatility": 0.247354, "from_high_reference": -0.092391, "from_low_reference": 0.217201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.546594, "fair_value_reference": 26.56882, "structural_low": 30.98, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016044, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.000309, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.123695, "worst_return": -0.093002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039376, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.010419, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.175406, "worst_return": -0.181254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070716, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014848, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.08575, "worst_return": -0.149024, "sufficient": true 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33.549079, 33.65029 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.540001, "volume": 139571, "typical_volume": 945710.3, "trend": 33.475261, "fair_value": 26.052516, "relative_strength": -5.361523, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.254145, "energy": 33.309535, "activity_lines": [ 32.824481, 33.040919, 33.320328, 33.522553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.719999, "volume": 104135, "typical_volume": 917602.15, "trend": 33.453261, "fair_value": 26.135172, "relative_strength": -6.255836, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.61711, "energy": 57.21819, "activity_lines": [ 32.37135, 32.803273, 33.124719, 33.40931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.360001, "volume": 656142, "typical_volume": 921022.65, "trend": 33.445261, "fair_value": 26.213292, "relative_strength": -5.479078, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.768221, "energy": 68.619774, "activity_lines": [ 31.911505, 32.506751, 32.909491, 33.274261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.299999, "volume": 398714, "typical_volume": 893160.95, "trend": 33.461261, "fair_value": 26.296992, "relative_strength": -2.769005, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.029769, "energy": 70.3807, "activity_lines": [ 31.896, 32.412414, 32.805692, 33.200373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.720001, "volume": 435860, "typical_volume": 852477.55, "trend": 33.494594, "fair_value": 26.381267, "relative_strength": -2.04564, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.813587, "energy": 58.726067, "activity_lines": [ 32.124, 32.408284, 32.76256, 33.15255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.439999, "volume": 529114, "typical_volume": 822011.2, "trend": 33.529261, "fair_value": 26.476621, "relative_strength": -1.642678, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.38885, "energy": 20.423921, "activity_lines": [ 32.628, 32.536131, 32.799998, 33.149028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.400002, "volume": 698080, "typical_volume": 759427.85, "trend": 33.546594, "fair_value": 26.56882, "relative_strength": -4.142106, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.941838, "energy": 18.833215, "activity_lines": [ 32.992001, 32.66455, 32.83239, 33.140688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }