{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d12a015c-75e3-40b7-8157-9c9a26e2b88b", "symbol": "ONEC", "name": "Accelerate OneChoice Alternative Multi-Asset Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.756, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.205, "architecture_energy": 40.625, "architecture_maturity": 36.83, "architecture_confidence": 47.896, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.04, "rotation_up": 50.67, "upward_expansion": 72.34, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 22.04, "downward_expansion": 6.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.437334, 26.398357, 26.351956, 26.296566 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.690001, "trend_reference": 26.227342, "distance_from_trend": 0.01764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.846298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.389608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040126, "excess_performance": -0.080295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01764, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168242, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3000, "relative_activity": 0.89153, "balance": 0.33574, "dry_up": 0.77266, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007825, "annualized_volatility": 0.080693, "from_high_reference": -0.006539, "from_low_reference": 0.128651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.227342, "fair_value_reference": 22.846298, "structural_low": 25.271858, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007616, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.0041, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.032972, "worst_return": -0.023729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023226, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.028112, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.065207, "worst_return": -0.021211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05203, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.04688, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.089577, "worst_return": -0.001367, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.711639, "energy": 51.473853, "activity_lines": [ 26.376642, 26.323993, 26.277064, 26.207631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.360001, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 5510.0, "trend": 26.076891, "fair_value": 22.661002, "relative_strength": -6.830418, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.733547, "energy": 49.287802, "activity_lines": [ 26.377294, 26.332137, 26.287613, 26.228323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.219999, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 4935.0, "trend": 26.110171, "fair_value": 22.706128, "relative_strength": -6.949965, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.958102, "energy": 26.606292, "activity_lines": [ 26.323311, 26.315552, 26.286051, 26.237556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.370001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 3450.0, "trend": 26.147127, "fair_value": 22.751849, "relative_strength": -6.438113, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.902265, "energy": 24.845212, "activity_lines": [ 26.331985, 26.330235, 26.300853, 26.254319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 3570.0, "trend": 26.18804, "fair_value": 22.798221, "relative_strength": -6.023546, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.315647, "energy": 15.622073, "activity_lines": [ 26.315333, 26.329835, 26.308455, 26.264182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.690001, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 3365.0, "trend": 26.227342, "fair_value": 22.846298, "relative_strength": -7.389608, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.204895, "energy": 40.624816, "activity_lines": [ 26.437334, 26.398357, 26.351956, 26.296566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }