{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d12d56ba-2785-4105-adf6-ba833e5ffa45", "symbol": "AAI", "name": "Asian Alliance International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.153, "architecture_energy": 71.545, "architecture_maturity": 16.575, "architecture_confidence": 55.944, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.73, "rotation_up": 76.69, "upward_expansion": 68.07, "deceleration": 18.66, "rotation_down": 18.01, "downward_expansion": 24.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.042667, 3.945091, 3.778286, 3.727275 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.14, "trend_reference": 3.739187, "distance_from_trend": 0.107193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.140363, "distance_from_fair_value": -8.8e-05, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.555415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003534, "excess_performance": -0.195859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107193, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04008, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -8.8e-05, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.659748, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19383200, "relative_activity": 1.116055, "balance": 5.659748, "dry_up": 1.357775, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044965, "annualized_volatility": 0.332211, "from_high_reference": -0.220945, "from_low_reference": 0.246988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.739187, "fair_value_reference": 4.140363, "structural_low": 3.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046937, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.068548, "worst_return": 0.042696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004856, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004856, "worst_return": 0.004856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.09605, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.276616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.09605, "worst_return": -0.09605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.420245, "energy": 56.02197, "activity_lines": [ 3.889333, 3.766182, 3.644857, 3.664107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 35284500, "typical_volume": 18192280.0, "trend": 3.733815, "fair_value": 4.118942, "relative_strength": -19.352448, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.786567, "energy": 61.082446, "activity_lines": [ 3.936, 3.821455, 3.684476, 3.680196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 19517100, "typical_volume": 17780820.0, "trend": 3.736456, "fair_value": 4.129242, "relative_strength": -16.257644, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.076171, "energy": 66.796775, "activity_lines": [ 3.984, 3.881455, 3.729143, 3.70124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.14, "volume": 19383200, "typical_volume": 17367605.0, "trend": 3.739187, "fair_value": 4.140363, "relative_strength": -13.555415, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.153245, "energy": 71.544506, "activity_lines": [ 4.042667, 3.945091, 3.778286, 3.727275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }