{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d12de50f-55d7-4cd3-98d5-816745e05439", "symbol": "M1CK34", "name": "McKesson Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.823, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.172, "architecture_energy": 27.301, "architecture_maturity": 12.979, "architecture_confidence": 61.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.28, "rotation_up": 51.56, "upward_expansion": 39.45, "deceleration": 34.37, "rotation_down": 14.31, "downward_expansion": 43.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.829542, 66.027761, 64.438962, 65.884365 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.510002, "trend_reference": 67.89385, "distance_from_trend": 0.023804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.215833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.630144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104784, "excess_performance": -0.047735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.434124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11316, "relative_activity": 2.210826, "balance": 2.434124, "dry_up": 1.680245, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057669, "annualized_volatility": 0.281734, "from_high_reference": -0.149442, "from_low_reference": 0.248642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.89385, "fair_value_reference": 54.215833, "structural_low": 55.668476, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075153, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"down", "direction": -15.497661, "energy": 16.427967, "activity_lines": [ 64.798999, 63.556269, 63.762848, 65.913719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.061249, "volume": 1120, "typical_volume": 4304.0, "trend": 67.97754, "fair_value": 53.753416, "relative_strength": -6.934571, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.672115, "energy": 17.895273, "activity_lines": [ 65.571374, 64.173174, 63.772569, 65.778385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.970001, "volume": 5533, "typical_volume": 4552.65, "trend": 67.859773, "fair_value": 53.984102, "relative_strength": -5.999594, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.605129, "energy": 19.049616, "activity_lines": [ 66.655083, 65.033056, 64.008759, 65.777898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.510002, "volume": 11316, "typical_volume": 5118.45, "trend": 67.89385, "fair_value": 54.215833, "relative_strength": -0.630144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.171625, "energy": 27.300958, "activity_lines": [ 67.829542, 66.027761, 64.438962, 65.884365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }